July 06, (THEWILL) — In Nigeria today, everyone seems to have become an economist. On social media, in market stalls and in government corridors, the language of inflation, exchange rates and fiscal policy has become everyday conversation. The problem is not that Nigerians are discussing the economy. It is that too many people speak with absolute confidence about subjects they barely understand.
Nigeria’s prolonged economic distress has created a vacuum that everyone feels entitled to fill. When the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria announces a rate hike, the average citizen may not understand the transmission mechanism. But they understand that their rent is due, that garri has doubled in price and that their salary has not moved in years. In the absence of credible communication, speculation rushes in.
To be clear, the rise in public interest in economics is not entirely bad. It reflects a population that is awake, alert, and unwilling to suffer in silence. That is a healthy democratic instinct. But awareness without understanding can become another form of confusion.
Consider the gap between official statistics and lived experience. The National Bureau of Statistics reports that inflation eased to 14.45 per cent in November 2025, down from 34.6 per cent a year earlier. Foreign reserves have climbed to $50.11 billion. The stock market jumped nearly 60 per cent year-on-year.
Yet on the ground, a different story unfolds. The World Bank estimates that the number of poor Nigerians rose from 81 million in 2019 to 139 million by October 2025.
Approximately 93 per cent of Nigerians are engaged in low-income informal sector activities. The unemployment rate is estimated at around 30 per cent.
Officials have deployed statistics selectively, celebrating falling inflation while ignoring that falling inflation does not mean falling prices—it simply means prices are rising more slowly. They highlight GDP growth without acknowledging that much of it comes from capital-intensive sectors that create few jobs for the millions of young Nigerians entering the workforce annually.
Before we blame citizens entirely, we must acknowledge that government officials have been enthusiastic participants in this degradation of economic discourse. In June 2025, a Special Adviser on Economic Affairs to the President, accused Nigerians of deliberately hiking prices to make the administration “look bad”. His argument? That inflation was driven by “emotions” and “whims” rather than orthodox economic factors. This explanation reflects a misunderstanding of how inflation dynamics operate in a market economy.
When a presidential aide suggests that traders are raising prices specifically to embarrass the government, he legitimises the very amateurism he should be correcting. He signals that economic analysis is negotiable, that facts are interchangeable with feelings.
In addition, a former Central Bank Governor suggested that cryptocurrency was responsible for naira volatility rather than acknowledging the bank’s own failures in forex management, the signal was clear: economic expertise is optional even at the apex of financial authority. If the CBN Governor can dismiss established monetary economics, why should every social media user not do the same? This matters beyond intellectual discourse. It has measurable consequences for how Nigerians vote.
The Electoral Consequence
The relationship between economic understanding and electoral choice is measurable. A 2025 academic analysis of the 2023 presidential election revealed a troubling pattern. The research found that voters in more developed states increasingly vote against incumbent economic performance, while less developed states show weaker connections between economic reality and electoral choice. This is democracy distorted by differential access to information and opportunity.
The solution is not to silence public discourse. It is to elevate its quality. This requires interventions. First, improved systematic economic literacy programmes must be integrated into civic education. The average Nigerian voter need not master econometrics, but they must understand concepts such as the difference between a price level (where prices are) and inflation (how fast they are rising).
Second, government communication must move from assertion to explanation. Telling Nigerians that “inflationary pressures are moderating” is insufficient when prices remain high. Citizens need to understand why reforms were necessary, how they will eventually improve living standards, and what benchmarks they can monitor.
To be clear, the rise in public interest in economics is not entirely bad. It reflects a population that is awake, alert, and unwilling to suffer in silence. That is a healthy democratic instinct. But awareness without understanding can become another form of confusion.
The 2027 elections will not be decided by economic data alone. They will be decided by millions of Nigerians making calculations with incomplete information, competing pressures, and genuine material anxiety. The question is whether those calculations will be informed or manipulated, rational or reflexive. When the average Nigerian does not understand economics, democracy itself becomes impoverished in its capacity for accountability.
As elections approach, Nigerians will make choices that shape the country’s economic direction for years. Those choices will depend not just on the policies presented, but on how well those policies are understood.
In the end, the question is not really whether everyone has become an economist. A democracy cannot hold leaders accountable for economic outcomes if citizens are unable to distinguish between economic reality and economic rhetoric.
•The author, Mayowa Oyatogun is a United Kingdom-based strategist and business planning specialist.
