May 13, (THEWILL) — Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is projected to rise to 16.42 percent year-on-year in April 2026, according to the latest Inflation Forecast report released by the Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA).
The report, published on May 13 and based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank, and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), points to rising food prices, higher energy costs, and global commodity shocks as key drivers of the expected increase.
FMDA projects month-on-month inflation at 2.78 percent in April, lower than the 4.18 percent recorded in March but still elevated compared with the broader disinflation trend seen since late 2025.
The latest forecast also signals the second consecutive monthly increase in annual inflation after rates declined steadily from 27.35 percent in March 2025 to 15.06 percent in February 2026.
According to the report, average petrol prices climbed by 9.44 percent to N1,322.50 in April from N1,208.38 in March, while domestic food prices continued to rise across major staples.
Yam recorded the sharpest increase, alongside higher prices for maize, millet, sorghum, and watermelon.
The association noted that the appreciation of the naira to an average of N1,361.22/$ in April from N1,379.98/$ in March may help moderate some inflationary pressures.
Globally, rising commodity prices also intensified inflation risks. Brent crude oil surged to $120.4 per barrel in April from $103.7 in March amid geopolitical tensions and disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6 percent during the month, while inflation accelerated across several economies, including the United States, the Euro Area, and Kenya.
FMDA said the outlook presents fresh challenges for monetary authorities as the Central Bank of Nigeria seeks to sustain the country’s disinflation momentum through tighter monetary policy.
Ogochukwu Onwaeze is a writer specializing in business and economic journalism. At THEWILL News Media, she translates market trends, financial developments, and policy shifts into clear and engaging stories.
