May 13, (THEWILL) — Sub-Saharan African countries are continuing to struggle with widening gaps between approved national budgets and actual fiscal outcomes, raising fresh concerns over fiscal discipline, debt sustainability, and long-term economic growth across the region.
This was revealed in a new research paper published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which examined fiscal performance across 39 countries between 2021 and 2024.
The report, titled Budget Credibility in Sub-Saharan Africa, found that deviations between planned budgets and actual government spending have become widespread and structural rather than temporary.
According to the IMF, fiscal deficits in many countries consistently exceeded approved projections due to overly optimistic revenue assumptions and persistent overspending on recurrent expenditure.
The authors noted that “capital spending is typically under-executed, especially when tax revenues fall short or grants are delayed.”
The study showed that spending on wages, subsidies, goods and services, and social transfers often surpassed approved budget limits, worsening fiscal balances across several economies.
At the same time, capital projects such as roads, schools, hospitals, and other infrastructure investments were frequently delayed, scaled down, or abandoned during periods of fiscal pressure.
The IMF also found that interest payment obligations were often underestimated, increasing financing pressures and widening deficits further.
According to the report, countries with stronger fiscal institutions recorded smaller gaps between budget plans and actual outcomes, while nations operating under IMF-supported programmes generally experienced better fiscal discipline due to external monitoring and policy reforms.
Low-income and fragile states, however, recorded larger fiscal slippages, reflecting weaker administrative systems and financing constraints.
The report also noted that fiscal discipline often weakens during election periods as governments increase spending beyond approved limits.
The IMF recently projected that the region’s median fiscal deficit could widen to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2026 despite improved commodity prices offering some relief to external balances.
Ogochukwu Onwaeze is a writer specializing in business and economic journalism. At THEWILL News Media, she translates market trends, financial developments, and policy shifts into clear and engaging stories.
