September 24, (THEWILL) – Less than 50 days before the Kogi Governorship Election, which is scheduled to take place on November 11, 2023, the jostle for Governor Yahaya Bello’s seat has gathered steam. Yahaya Bello of the All Progressives Congress, APC, will be completing his second term next year.
The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has cleared 18 political parties and their candidates to contest in the coming governorship election in Kogi State.
The candidates include Usman Ododo of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); Senator Dino Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Muritala Ajaka of Social Democratic Party (SDP); Leke Abejide of African Democratic Congress (ADC); Olayinka Braimoh of Action Alliance (AA); Kingsley Idoko Ilonah of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); Dr Samson Agada Omale of Young ,Progressives Party (YPP) and Admiral Usman Jibrin of Accord Party (AP), among others.
All the candidates are currently going round the state to canvass votes from the electorate. There have also been intrigues, defections across party lines, endorsements and name calling, all aimed at achieving victory by the political parties and their candidates.
One common feature of past elections in Kogi State, which is already giving political gladiators cause for concern, is the issue of violence.
The state is notorious for political violence. Ongoing activities on the political scene already indicate that the forthcoming governorship poll may not be different in terms of violence from past elections.
During the last governorship election in the state, the women’s leader of the Peoples Democratic Party, Kogi Chapter, Salome Abuh, was burnt alive in her residence, shortly after the results of the election held on November 18, 2019, were announced. The election was won by the incumbent governor and candidate of the APC.
THEWILL recalls that on June 3, 2023, there was a clash between the convoys of Murtala Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party, SDP and Governor Yahaya Bello. Not long afterwards, suspected political thugs reportedly invaded and vandalised the SDP campaign office in Lokoja, the state capital. Later, the hoodlums allgedly returned to the same campaign office and set it ablaze.
An attack on the APC secretariat in Igalamela-Odolu Local Government Area of the state was also reported.
Political analysts and observers in the state are already calling on the security agencies to put on their belts and ensure there is a peaceful election in Kogi State come Saturday, November 11.
Factors That May Shape the Election
Power of Incumbency
The governing APC and its candidate, Usman Ododo, are depnding on the incumbent factor to succeed in the coming governorship poll.
Fortunately for Ododo, his party is also in control at the federal level and this may boost his chances in the election. With federal and state might behind him, watchers of political developments in the country believe that the other candidates have a mountain to climb to defeat the APC candidate.
It is believed that aside Governor Yahaya Bello, who would want to handover to a fellow party man as his successor, all government appointees from the three senatorial districts in the state, be it at the state or federal level, will also work together to ensure that the party wins the governorship election.
Ethnic Inclination
Another factor that may shape the outcome of the forthcoming governorship election in Kogi state is the issue of ethnicity. The big question is which one among the three major ethnic nationalities in the state will produce Yahaya Bello’s successor?
Although two ethnic groups have dominated the governorship position since the creation of the state, the current situation seems to be different as the three major tribes have each produced candidates from the party primaries.
PDP produced Dino Melaye from Okun tribe; ADC produced Leke Abejide from Okun; APC produced Usman Ododo from Ebira tribe while the SDP propped up Murtala Ajaka, an Igala, as its candidate.
So, the governorship race is between the Ebira, the Igala and the Okun of Kogi state.
THEWILL recalls that in 1999 the Kogi governorship election drew contest between PDP’s Steven Olorunfemi who is Okun and ANPP’s Abubakar Audu, an Igala. Ebiras were the beautiful bride at the time.
In 2007, it was a contest between PDP’s Ibrahim Idris of Igala and Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN’s Mohammed Salami Ohiare of Ebira. In that election, the Okun were the beautiful bride.
The year 2019 witnessed a governorship contest between PDP’s Musa Wada, an Igala and APC’s Yahaya Bello, an Ebira. Wada got the overall votes from Igala land while Yahaya Bello cleaned up Ebira votes in an unimaginable landslide.
Tribal contests are shaping the campaign for the election and the election may result in a supremacy battle between the Ebira, Okun and Igala ethnic nationalities. Political analysts have expressed the opinion that none of these ethnic groups can single-handedly make one of their own governor. Therefore, the ethnic minorities like Bassa Nge, Bassa Kwomu, Nupe, Ogori-Magongo and non-indigenes, mostly based in the urban areas of the state, may likely decide the winner of the election.
The Leading Candidates
Usman Ododo, APC
A former Auditor-General of Kogi State, Ahmed Usman Ododo, is the governorship candidate of the ruling APC.
Ododo will enjoy the advantage of the APC‘s control of power in the state in the last eight years.
He has an advantage over other 17 candidates because of the spread that his party enjoys across the state. The party’s performance in the 2023 general election shows that the APC is the party to beat in the Confluence State.
APC won the majority in the Senate, House of Representatives and the State House of Assembly where it won 22 out of 25 seats. But the election may be different because of the deep ethnic politics that it has generated. Perhaps the APC should not relax if it desires to win as Ododo’s zone has the least number of registered voters.
Leke Abejide, ADC
The emergence of Dino Melaye (PDP) and Leke Abejide (ADC) has not only rekindled the hope of Kogi West agitators for power-shift but also balanced the demand for a Christian governor.
Abejide is an Okun from Yagba East and he, like Melaye, is a Christian, a faith that many are rooting for to produce Bello’s successor.
The agitators for power shift are hinging their stand on the fact that the Igala-dominated Kogi East had held power for 17 cumulative civil years, while the Ebira-dominated Kogi Central are on the verge of completing eight years, but the West has never tasted power.
On the other hand, agitators for a Christian governor have said that it was not out of place for people to demand the election of a governor of Christian extraction in a 32-year-old state that has experienced five elected Muslim governors.
Abejide is expected to get the majority of the votes from the western part of the state, if all things remain constant.
A member of the House of Representatives, Abejide has through his widely acknowledged Free WAEC payment for students in Yagba Federal Constituency not only won a resounding second term in the February 25 National Assembly election but also spread his good fortune to another Federal Constituency, Kabba-Bunu/ Ijumu, where his party won the seat.
There are reports that he is the choice of the Okun Development Association, ODA. Political analysts also believe that he has a good relationship with President Bola Tinubu; Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila and James Faleke who is an indigene of the state.
The minus on his part, is his choice of platform to contest the election. ADC as a party does not have a strong structure in Kogi state.
Analysts have recalled that Abejide had twice defeated APC and PDP in Yagba Federal Constituency through coalition. He understands the politics of harvesting aggrieved party members from other parties to work for his victory. He will be taking the same strategyto the governorship poll.
Dino Melaye, PDP
Dino Melaye is from Ijumu Council Area of Kogi West Senatorial District.
A former senator and member of the House of Representatives, Melaye is also a member of the Peoples Democratic Party. He was the Chairman, Senate Committee on the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and briefly, the Senate Committee Chairman on Aviation.
Melaye was also the spokesperson of the 2023 presidential candidate of PDP, Atiku Abubakar. Like Abejide, he is a Christian and so has the advantage of receiving the support of those clamouring for a Christian governor for the state.
He is also from Kogi West Senatorial District, which has not produced a governor since the creation of the state.
However, Melaye is going to battle with a bruised party structure. The PDP is seen as weaker than it used to be in the state. Political analysts believe that the leadership of the party has lost steam and the PDP is currently at its lowest ebb.
From one Senate seat and three House of Representatives seats in 2019, the PDP has gone down to zero Senate seats and one House of Representative seat in 2023. They also managed to win two out of the 25 State Assembly seats, that shows the level of decay of the party in Kogi State.
However, the Chairman of the PDP Campaign Council in Kogi, the Governor of Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, has promised that, come November 11, he will deliver Kogi to the party.
“We are marching to victory in the upcoming Kogi State governorship election,” he pledged recently.
AYO ESAN, has been actively reporting and analyzing political events for different newspapers for over 18 years. He has also successfully covered national and state elections in Nigeria since the inception of this democracy in 1999.
