July 6 (THEWILL) — The naira has maintained relative stability in 2026, supported by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) tight monetary policy, stronger foreign exchange reserves, and improved crude oil production.
After experiencing sharp volatility between 2024 and early 2025, the local currency has recovered significantly and is currently trading below the N1,400/$ mark. The official exchange rate has hovered around N1,370/$ in recent weeks.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook. Institutions including the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers and CFG Advisory expect the naira to trade within a N1,350/$ to N1,520/$ range for the rest of the year, with the possibility of further appreciation if external reserves continue to improve and foreign exchange reforms are sustained.
Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have risen from about $45.5 billion in 2025 to nearly $51 billion, strengthening the CBN’s capacity to support the currency against speculative pressures.
The apex bank has also maintained a restrictive monetary policy, keeping the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.67 percent, a move that has helped attract foreign portfolio investments into the country’s high-yield fixed-income market.
Inflation has eased considerably from the above-30 percent levels recorded previously, with analysts projecting average inflation of between 15 percent and 23.8 percent this year.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to improve to between 4 percent and 4.4 percent, supported by crude oil production averaging about 1.48 million barrels per day.
However, analysts caution that the naira’s stability will largely depend on sustained oil production, as softer global crude prices of about $70 per barrel and previously committed forward oil sales could limit near-term foreign exchange inflows.
Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened in global markets as investors assessed expectations for US interest rates.
Market attention is now focused on upcoming US economic data and the release of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting minutes, which could provide further direction for global currency markets.
Ogochukwu Onwaeze is a writer specializing in business and economic journalism. At THEWILL News Media, she translates market trends, financial developments, and policy shifts into clear and engaging stories.
