October 05, (THEWILL) — On October 1, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu told Nigerians, “The worst is over”, citing GDP growth, lower inflation, rising reserves, record non-oil revenue, and social disbursements. But celebrating numbers while families cannot eat is like boasting about giving a man crutches after you broke his legs. Yet, this comes amid Bayo Onanuga’s recent response to rumours of Goodluck Jonathan eyeing a 2027 presidential run, where the presidential spokesman welcomed Jonathan’s inalienable right to contest but swiftly attempted to hoodwink Nigerians by dredging up a “dismal record” of economic ruins, reckless spending, and squandered oil wealth under Jonathan—claims that whitewash APC’s own decade of decline. Meanwhile, data doesn’t lie.
Nyesom Wike was right:
APC, which came to power in 2015 promising change, presented itself as a surgeon arriving to treat a sick patient. Nigeria’s ailment was malaria— corruption, insecurity, and structural inefficiency. Instead of providing medicine, APC’s policies inflicted cancer — an economic disease far more deadly, corrosive, and difficult to cure.
Jonathan: The Patient Had Malaria — Weak, But Surviving
By 2014, under Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria was sick but not dying. The economy showed signs of strain, but it was alive and hopeful. Per capita income was $3,222 [$3,137 per World Bank; $3,009 CEIC], unemployment was just 7.5 percent [7.0%–8.2% per NBS pre-2023 methodology], and inflation stood at a modest 8.1 percent [8.06% per World Bank/CBN]. The naira traded at about N165 to the dollar [~N162 average per CBN], and the middle class had expanded to roughly 4.1 million households — a 600 percent increase since 2000 [~5–6m households or 23% of population per AfDB/World Bank; 4.1m low-end estimate]. Middle-class workers were able to drive brand-new cars, and several car companies like Kia and Hyundai began assembling here. Jonathan’s government rebased GDP in 2014, revealing growth beyond oil — with services, telecoms, and construction driving diversification. Nigerians abroad were returning home to invest in banking, startups, and technology.
Most importantly, foreign direct investment surged, making Nigeria Africa’s top destination. In 2011 alone, FDI hit $8.92 billion [$8.92 billion per World Bank]; by 2012, it was $7.07 billion [$7.07 billion per World Bank], with cumulative inflows of nearly $60 billion between 2011 and 2014 [~$24.8bn per World Bank: 2011: $8.9bn, 2012: $7.1bn, 2013: $5.6bn, 2014: $3.2bn]. FAO gave Nigeria an award for reducing hunger. Yes, corruption was a fever in the system, with Nigeria scoring 27/100 on Transparency International’s index [27/100 per Transparency International]. But like malaria, it was painful, it drained energy — yet the patient could still stand and even dream of recovery.
APC Under Buhari: Malaria Turned to Broken Legs — The Cancer Begins
When APC took over under Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, it was trusted as the surgeon who would cure malaria. Instead, it broke the patient’s legs and injected poison into the system. By 2022, Nigeria’s per capita income had fallen to $2,065 [$2,127 World Bank; $2,139 Macrotrends]. Inflation had more than doubled to 22.4 percent [18.85% annual average, peaked at 21.34% per NBS/CBN]. Unemployment skyrocketed to 33 percent [33.3% per old NBS methodology; revised ~3.8% Q4 2022], and the naira collapsed to N461 per dollar [~N423 average per CBN]. Poverty deepened to engulf 133 million Nigerians in multidimensional poverty [133 million per NBS/OPHI 2022].
The misery index — which combines unemployment and inflation — rose from about 15 under Jonathan to 55 under Buhari [~22.7 simple calc, ~62 Hanke-adjusted using old unemployment]. Corruption perception worsened to 24/100 [24/100 per Transparency International]. Buhari presided over two recessions, ballooning debt, and a forex crisis that crippled businesses.
Foreign direct investment, which flourished under Jonathan, collapsed. Inflows that once reached billions annually fell to a trickle — often below $300 million per quarter [annual ~$3.3bn, avg. ~$825m/quarter, lows ~$500m–$800m per NBS], reflecting investors’ loss of confidence. Nigeria, once a patient with malaria, was now struggling with broken legs and the early spread of cancer.
APC Under Tinubu: Cancer Metastasised — Crutches That Cannot Heal
In 2023, APC under Tinubu promised to finish the surgery and restore the patient. Instead, it worsened the disease. By July 2024, the naira had collapsed further to N1,510 per dollar [~N1,550 parallel market, ~N1,500 official per CBN]. Inflation spiked to 34.8 percent [34.19% June, ~32%–34% July per NBS]. Unemployment surged past 41 percent [~5.3% Q1 2024 per revised NBS methodology]. Per capita income fell to just $806 [$824 IMF; $835 est.] — the steepest drop in Nigeria’s modern history. The misery index soared to over 76 [~38 simple calc, ~73–77 Hanke-adjusted with old unemployment]. Corruption perception slid further to 22/100 [26/100, rank 140/180 per Transparency International 2024]. Tinubu points to social disbursements as evidence of compassion, but these are irregular, inadequate, and meaningless against hunger and skyrocketing fuel prices caused by subsidy removals and policy confusion.
Foreign direct investment has now hit historic lows. By Q2 2024, FDI fell to just $29.8 million [$29.83m per NBS] — a staggering decline from the billions seen under Jonathan. Nigeria, once Africa’s leading investment destination, is now struggling to attract even small capital inflows. Now the patient has advanced cancer. And the surgeon who inflicted it hands over cheap crutches, pretending they can carry the weight of survival.
From Malaria to Cancer
The trajectory is tragic but clear: Jonathan left a patient with malaria — sick but treatable, weak but hopeful. Buhari, under APC, broke the patient’s legs and injected cancer — destroying livelihoods and eroding hope. Tinubu, also under APC, presides over the metastasis — where the cancer spreads, hope collapses, and flimsy crutches are handed out as false relief.
Conclusion
APC’s Independence Day rhetoric is polished, but its record is cruel. Jonathan left an imperfect but hopeful economy. APC under Buhari dismantled it. APC under Tinubu has deepened the suffering. Handing out statistics does not cure hunger. Offering crutches does not heal broken legs. And a surgeon who was called to treat malaria but instead inflicted cancer has no right to claim victory.
***Written by Ken Agala.
