August 29, (THEWILL) – The presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, has been aspiring to govern the country since 1992 when he contested in the Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential primary election and came third behind Alhaji Babagana Kingibe and Late Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola, the eventual winner of the election held in Jos, the capital of Plateau State.
Despite his efforts and consistent struggle to be President, Atiku was only on the ballot papers two times. The first was in 2007 when he contested on the platform of the Action Congress (AC) and in 2019 when he contested on the platform of the PD, a platform he is using now to fulfill his political ambition in 2023.
One thing that political observers and critics have noticed in the country is that Atiku has not been able to win convincingly in the North, despite the fact that he is a northerner and has been in politics for a long time.
Atiku hails from Jada in Adamawa State, but in fact, the two times he contested, he lost the northern votes to the eventual winners.
In the 2007 presidential election, three northerners were candidates of the three major political parties. They were late Umaru Yar’Adua of the PDP, Alhaji Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Atiku Abubakar of the AC. INEC refused to release the breakdown of the official results of 2007 presidential election states by states. It only announced the final scores by candidates. But unofficial results across the states showed that Atiku performed woefully in the North behind Yar’Adua and Buhari. Yar’Adua had the highest votes in the northern region in the election, followed by Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar.
The final results released by INEC for the 2007 presidential election showed that Yar’Adua was the winner and he received 70 per cent of the total number of votes (24,638,063 votes). Buhari was in second place with 18 per cent of the votes (6,605,299 votes), while Abubakar was placed third with about 7 per cent (2,637,848 votes).
In 2019, Atiku was the presidential candidate of the PDP and he contested against President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), among other contestants.
The final results also showed that Atiku lost the election in the North to Buhari.
The breakdown of the results shows that Buhari scored 612,371 votes in Niger State to Atiku’s 218,052 votes. In Sokoto, Buhari got 490,333 votes as against Atiku who scored 36,604 votes.
Others are Yobe: Buhari 497,914; Atiku , 50,763; Zamfara: Buhari, 438682, Atiku, 125,423; Nasarawa: Buhari 289,903 as against Atiku, 283,847; Kwara: Buhari 308,984, Atiku 138,184; Kogi: Buhari, 285,894, Atiku ,218,207; Kebbi: Buhari, 58,552, Atiku, 154,282; Katsina: Buhari 1,232,133, Atiku, 308,056; Kano: Buhari, 1,464,768, Atiku, 391,593; Kaduna: Buhari, 993,445, Atiku, 649,612; Jigawa: Buhari 794,738, Atiku,289,895; Gombe: Buhari,402,961, Atiku 138,484; FCT: Buhari,152,224, Atiku,259,997; Borno: Buhari,836,496, Atiku, 71788; Benue: Buhari 347,668, Atiku,356,817; Bauchi: Buhari798,428, Atiku 209,313; Adamawa: Buhari,378,076, Atiku, 410,266; Plateau: Buhari,468,555, Atiku,548,665; Taraba: Buhari,324,906, Atiku 374,743.
The results given by the INEC in 2019 showed that in the 19 states in the North and the FCT, Buhari won in 15 states, while Atiku won in four states and the FCT.
In the 2019 presidential election, Atiku lost in the North-East to Buhari in Bauchi, Yobe, Borno and Gombe States, but won only in his home state of Adamawa and Taraba. In the North West, he lost all the seven states of Kaduna, Kano, Zamfara, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto and Katsina. In the North Central, Atiku won in the Federal Capital Territory, Plateau and Benue.
An analysis of the past presidential election results has shown that Atiku is a bit stronger in the North-Central and was not strong but very weak even in his North- East region and the North West.
Also the result of the SDP primary in 1993 showed that Atiku came second behind Babagana Kingibe in the pursuit of northern delegates ‘votes. In 2007, he lost the northern votes to Late Yar’Adua and in the 2019 presidential election; he lost the northern votes to Buhari.
The question on the lips of political analysts is whether now that Atiku is the only northern presidential candidate of the major political parties in the country, he can conveniently win the northern votes for himself and the PDP.
It would be recalled that before the APC presidential primary, there was agitation among its members and leaders that with the emergence of the former Vice President as the candidate of the PDP, there was a need for them to also pick a northerner in order to secure the north votes.
This has spurred arguments and many have expressed the opinion that the APC has no other choice than but to pick a northern candidate if it wished to win the 2023 presidential election.
But the party found itself in a dicey situation as it could not find a northern candidate that could compete favourably with Atiku, hence its decision to vote Tinubu from the South-West.
The argument is on the assumption that the votes in the North are region-based and Abubakar will overrun the North if APC fields a candidate from the South.
Speaking with THEWILL, a public affairs commentator and analyst, John Bassey, said that with Atiku Abubakar as the candidate of the PDP and with a APC presidential candidate coming from the South, Atiku would receive the majority of northerners’ votes in the 2023 presidential election.
“What you are asking me is not difficult at all. Atiku Abubakar will win the northern votes . The northerners in their pattern of votes have always favoured one of their own. Luckily for Atiku this time around, he has no strong opponent in the North. Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso would have given him strong opposition, but he is in a minor party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party. So Atiku will break the jinx. He will win in the North overwhelmingly.”
Bassey’s position also tallies with that of Dr Lee Maeba, the spokesperson of the National Mandate Group.
He told THEWILL,” Atiku is set to take over Nigeria. There is nothing stopping him. He will win in the North and South.”
Also a group known as Plateau for Atiku Organisation said Abubakar would win the 2023 presidential election in Plateau State.
The spokesman of the group, Prof Shedrach Best, said that Plateau and indeed, the entire North would remain the home of the PDP.
Best pointed out that the PDP gladiators in Plateau have resolved to deliver the state for Atiku, having taken cognisance of his wealth of experience in politics and governance.
He added that the presidential candidate understood the terrain of governance more than other presidential candidates.
An APC stalwart said, on the condition of anonymity, that the presidential candidate of the party, Bola Tinubu alongside the vice presidential candidate, Kashim Shettima, would defeat Atiku Abubakar and the PDP in the North.
Will Atiku break the jinx and win the northern votes in 2023? That is a question that will surely be answered in February 2023.
AYO ESAN, has been actively reporting and analyzing political events for different newspapers for over 18 years. He has also successfully covered national and state elections in Nigeria since the inception of this democracy in 1999.
