December 04, (THEWILL) — The Federal Government has unveiled key macroeconomic assumptions that will guide the preparation of the 2026 national budget, signalling its fiscal outlook for the year ahead.
According to the approved parameters, the government is projecting:
Oil production: 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd)
Benchmark oil price: $64 per barrel
Exchange rate: ₦1,512 per US dollar
These assumptions form the backbone of revenue forecasts for 2026 and will shape expenditure planning, deficit estimates, borrowing needs, and overall fiscal strategy.
The production target of 2.06m bpd indicates the government’s optimism about improving security in oil-producing regions and sustaining upstream investments. However, analysts will be watching closely to see if this output level is achievable given recent volatility in actual production.
The oil benchmark price of $64 per barrel suggests a cautious approach, positioning the budget on relatively conservative oil-market expectations amid ongoing global price fluctuations.
The exchange-rate assumption of ₦1,512/$ will directly influence customs revenues, import duty calculations, and non-oil revenue projections. It also provides a fiscal anchor for ministries and agencies as they prepare their 2026 spending plans.
With these parameters now set, the Budget Office is expected to finalise the 2026 Appropriation Bill, which will outline government spending priorities for the year, including capital investments, debt servicing, and social sector allocations
In conclusion, the newly approved assumptions for oil output, crude price and the exchange rate provide the fiscal foundation on which the 2026 budget will be built. While the targets reflect a mix of optimism and caution, their successful implementation will depend on improvements in oil production, stability in global crude markets and a steady exchange-rate environment. As the government finalises the Appropriation Bill, these parameters will play a critical role in determining revenue performance, deficit levels and the overall credibility of next year’s budget.
Ogochukwu Onwaeze
