May 24, (THEWILL) — The anticipated initial public offering (IPO) by Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited, set for September 2026, will signify a pivotal transformation in Nigeria’s energy sector, greatly influencing the economic progress of the African continent.
Conversely, this transition will also herald the decline of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and its inactive, yet resource-draining refineries, which have absorbed more than $18 billion over the past twenty years without producing any petroleum products.
The progress of the Dangote Refinery is set to elevate Nigeria to a prominent position in global energy supply and bolster the country’s reserves to enhance its currency. However, the harsh truth of substantial financial losses, which benefit a select few and leaving many in poverty, due to the endless and corrupt maintenance of the refineries, will persistently trouble the nation.
Close to details
While hosting the board and management of First HoldCo in his refinery recently, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, disclosed that the world was waiting for the Dangote Refinery IPO scheduled for September this year. According to Dangote, investors had already submitted purchase requests worth nearly $2 billion for a private placement that has not been launched yet.
“There is quite a lot of demand for the IPO we have right now,” Dangote stated in an interview with journalists after leading First HoldCo chairman Femi Otedola and top executives of the company on a tour of the refinery complex in Lagos on Wednesday, May 20, 2026.
“We will make sure that by September, we will be out there in the market to sell the IPO. We have a lot of demands in billions of dollars.
“When we even said we are going to do a private placement, we already have people who have requested to buy, and we have an amount of almost $2 billion. We are not selling up to that, but we can see what we can allocate to IPO,” he added.st
Industrialisation pathway
The planned IPO is targeting a valuation of between N40 billion and $50 billion. The company intends to sell up to 10 percent stake, which would raise as much as $5 billion in a single transaction.
The Africa’s richest man said the refinery aims to produce about 10 per cent of America’s entire refining capacity and will become the largest refinery ever built on earth. He further projected that the refinery will have the highest turnover of any business in Africa.
The 650,000 barrels per day refinery located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, Nigeria, commenced operations in early 2024 with the production of diesel. It subsequently began large-scale production of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol and aviation fuel in the same year, drastically reducing Nigeria’s import dependency for petroleum products.
The current plan is to list about 10 per cent of the $20 billion refinery across multiple African exchanges (and potentially London) in a pattern that reflects the value-creation structures of global tech giants like Amazon or Apple.
This capital push comes at a time when the Dangote Refinery is navigating some regulatory headwinds. Last week, the Refinery filed a fresh lawsuit at the Federal High Court in Lagos. Dangote is challenging the fuel import licences recently granted by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to petroleum marketers, arguing that local production capacity is now fully sufficient under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to meet domestic demand.
The massive capital accumulation ahead of September indicates that the market is viewing the refinery’s long-term commercial upside as an unavoidable cornerstone of African industrial infrastructure.
Promising outlook
Aliko Dangote had in April announced plans to expand the Dangote Refinery to a production capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day, a move expected to create up to 95,000 skilled jobs at peak construction.
Dangote who made the disclosure in Lagos during his induction as an Honorary Fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Engineering, sees the expansion as a significant step in Nigeria’s industrialisation drive.
Once completed, the upgraded facility is projected to surpass India’s Jamnagar Refinery to become the world’s largest refinery by capacity. The development is expected to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic refining capability, reduce reliance on imported fuel, and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Dangote said the expansion would rely heavily on local expertise, creating opportunities for engineers, technicians, and artisans, while also driving technology transfer and supporting the broader oil and gas value chain.
“The scale of this expansion reflects our confidence in Nigerian capacity and our belief that Africa can build world-class infrastructure,” he said.
Nigeria’s average daily petrol consumption rose sharply to 51.1 million litres in April 2026, up from 47.3 million litres recorded in March, according to the latest industry data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The increase reflects rising demand for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, amid improving domestic refining capacity and a gradual decline in the country’s dependence on imported fuel.
Data from the NMDPRA’s April 2026 Factsheet showed that domestic petrol supply climbed to 40.7 million litres per day in April from 34.2 million litres per day in March, driven largely by increased production from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The refinery produced 53.6 million litres of petrol daily during the month, supplying 40.7 million litres to the local market while exporting 17.1 million litres per day. The facility also operated at an average capacity utilisation rate of 99.12 percent and reportedly achieved full utilisation on most operating days.
Meanwhile, imported petroleum products contributed just 3.7 million litres per day to domestic supply in April, down from 5.9 million litres recorded in March, signalling Nigeria’s growing reliance on local refining.
Despite the gains, crude oil supply to domestic refineries declined to 0.612 million barrels per day in April from 0.674 million barrels per day in March, raising concerns over feedstock availability.
The report also showed that state-owned refineries under the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) remained inactive, with both Warri and Kaduna refineries recording zero production despite ongoing rehabilitation efforts.
Among modular refineries, WalterSmith operated at 56.14 percent capacity utilisation, Edo Refinery posted 79.2 percent, while Aradel Refinery operated at 39.5 percent during the review period.
Expanding in waste
The NNPC Limited has invested over $18 billion in the rehabilitation and turnaround maintenance of its state-owned refineries (Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna) over the past two decades. Despite these massive capital injections, the facilities have largely remained non-operational.
The most significant recent rehabilitation approvals and total investments include the Federal Government approved $1.5 billion in 2021 for the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt facility. Despite restarting briefly for test runs, the plant was shut down for further maintenance. In 2021, NNPC approved roughly $1.48 billion to rehabilitate both the Warri and Kaduna refineries. An additional $741 million renovation deal was made with Daewoo Engineering in 2023 for the Kaduna refinery specifically.
Due to the lack of sustained commercial production, NNPC leadership has admitted that continuing to fund endless repairs under the current framework has resulted in monumental losses. The corporation has transitioned its strategy to engage technical equity partners and private operators to take over the operations of the refineries.
The recent declaration by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) regarding its new agreement with Chinese companies to restore two of the country’s long-neglected refineries has raised concerns among stakeholders and the general public.
The NNPCL had disclosed on May 4, 2026, that it signed the MoU with two Chinese firms, Sanjiang Chemical Company Limited, and Xinganchen (Fuzhou) Industrial Park Operation and Management Co., Ltd., for the restart, completion, and expansion of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries through a potential technical equity partnership.
The agreement, signed in Jiaxing City, China, by NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, alongside executives of the Chinese firms, is expected to cover the completion of outstanding work, operation and maintenance of the facilities, refinery upgrades, and expansion of petrochemical and gas-based industrial hubs.
The June 2026 target
The NNPC had set a target of June 2026 to complete the selection of technical partners for the nation’s state-owned refineries, after years of unsuccessful rehabilitation attempts and a significant decline in refining expertise.
Ojulari, who made the announcement during a question-and-answer session at a press briefing held in Abuja on Monday, November 24, 2025 where the company presented its financial statements, made the startling revelation.
He stated that Nigeria’s refineries, namely the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna plants, despite ongoing rehabilitation efforts, continue to operate “well below international standards,” rendering their products commercially uncompetitive, particularly in comparison to the privately owned Dangote Refinery.
The NNPC Chinese deal has been widely condemned. Stakeholders and industry experts perceive the ongoing investment in the upkeep of the NNPC refineries as a misallocation of taxpayers’ funds on facilities that ought to be deemed obsolete.
Sam Diala is a Bloomberg Certified Financial Journalist with over a decade of experience in reporting Business and Economy. He is Business Editor at THEWILL Newspaper, and believes that work, not wishes, creates wealth.
