July 20, (THEWILL) — Shares of Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO) recorded a 66.8 percent gain, year-to-date, as of Friday, July 18, 2025, closing at N95.05 per share against N57 it opened at the beginning of the year.
In an unusual performance that points to strong mid-session gains on July 16, 2025, GTCO shares broke through to N101, thus becoming the first banking stock to cross the N100 mark on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
Although, the achievement underscores strong investor confidence, supported by the bank’s sustained positive performance since the start of the year, the group’s recent dual listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) provided the impetus for the unusual bullish trend.
GTCO had announced plans to raise approximately $100 million through a fully marketed equity offering and transition from its current Global Depositary Receipts structure to a full listing of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market for listed securities.
The financial services group which disclosed this in a statement filed with the NGX and made available to the investing public on Thursday, July 17, 2025, noted that the exercise was geared towards the banking recapitalisation policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
According to the statement, the offering which commenced on July 2 and closed on July 3, 2025 would admit GTCO’s ordinary shares to the London Stock Exchange scheduled for July 9, 2025.
A senior stockbroker, Dr Paul Uzum, described the bullish performance of the GTCO shares as the aftermath of the LSE listing. Uzum told THEWILL that the impressive performance of the shares on the LSE reinforced strong investor confidence in both the Nigerian equity market and the stock of GTCO. Investors are rushing to take advantage of the price rally before it adjusts itself, Uzum said.
A review of GTCO’s share price trend shows that it opened the year at N57.00, posting steady gains throughout H1 2025 before accelerating sharply in June and July to breach the N100 mark, with a market capitalisation of N3.68 trillion. Industry analysts say the rally reflects positive market sentiment driven by the bank’s strong earnings growth, strategic initiatives, exemption from the CBN forbearance loan policy, and its recent successful listing on the London Stock Exchange.
This positive momentum mirrors the broader bullish trend in the banking sector, with the NGX Banking Index already up – over 22 percent in July.
It also follows GTCO’s recent dual listing, which saw 2.29 billion ordinary shares admitted to trading on the LSE on July 9, 2025, and a subsequent listing of 2.28 billion shares on the Nigerian Exchange the following day.
GTCO’s rally is likely fueled by positive market reaction around the cross-border listing and strong Q1 2025 earnings. The stock has gained over 27 percent month-to-date.
In Q1 2025, GTCO posted a pre-tax profit of N300.4 billion, supported by strong growth in core earnings. Interest income rose by 41.1 percent while fee and commission income grew by 41.2 percent.
In mid-June 2025, the CBN directed all banks under regulatory forbearance—due to credit exposure or breaches of single obligor limits—to suspend dividend payments, defer executive bonuses, and halt new investments in FX subsidiaries.
It was reported that GTCO had cleared all regulatory forbearance as of December 2024 giving it the latitude to ‘play’ with its revenues, unlike its peers which had to clear their commitments as required by the regulatory authorities.
Following the announcement, GTCO was the only Tier-1 bank stock to close in the green on the 17th of June 2025, gaining 5.8 percent as the banking index struggled.
GTCO’s recent move to seek global capital is expected to lift investor interest.
“On July 9, 2025, it listed 2.29 billion ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market, followed by an additional 2.28 billion shares on the Nigerian Exchange the next day,” observed Uzum.
Commenting on the dual listing, Group CEO Segun Agbaje said GTCO is targeting a minimum dividend yield of 15 percent and return on equity (ROE) of at least 25 percent — reflecting confidence in the group’s growth outlook.
The Group which sustained the growth momentum reported profit before tax of ₦300.4 billion on the back of strong performance posted on the core earnings lines of interest income which grew y-o-y by 41.1 percent and fee income up by 41.2 percent.
The strong performance enabled the group to douse the impact of the ₦331.6 billion fair value gains recognised in Q1-2024 which did not recur in Q1-2025.
Further analysis of the the Group’s Q1 2025 performance showed that its loan book (net) increased by 15.6 percent from ₦2.9 trillion recorded as at December 2024 to ₦3.22 trillion in March 2025.
While deposit liabilities grew by 7.7 percent from ₦10.40trillion to ₦11.20trillion during the same period, the group recorded growths across all its asset lines and continued to maintain a robust, well-structured and diversified balance sheet in all the jurisdictions it operates. Total assets and shareholders’ funds closed at ₦15 trillion and ₦3 trillion, respectively.
Full Impact Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) remained very robust and strong, closing at 34.6 percent, equally asset quality improved as evidenced by IFRS 9 Stage 3 Loans which closed at 3.3 percent at bank level and 4.5 percent at Group. Cost of Risk (COR) closed at 0.4 percent from 4.9 percernt in December 2024.
“Our Q1 2025 performance reflects the strength of all our business verticals and our capacity to generate strong and sustainable earnings.
While the fair value gains of N331.6billion reported in Q1 2024 did not recur this quarter, the Group recorded solid growth across most income lines, underpinned by a diversified revenue base and a healthy, well-structured balance sheet,” Agbaje had said.
Sam Ndata, a stock broker and former doyen of stockbrokers pointed out that the current bullish trend in the performance of the GTCO shares could lead to a high rate of profit-taking as investors rush to offload their stake, thereby weakening the current strong value.
Sam Diala is a Bloomberg Certified Financial Journalist with over a decade of experience in reporting Business and Economy. He is Business Editor at THEWILL Newspaper, and believes that work, not wishes, creates wealth.
