October 15, (THEWILL) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth outlook, projecting a 3.9 percent expansion in 2025 and 4.2 percent in 2026, an upward revision from its July forecast of 3.4 percent.
The new projections were unveiled on Tuesday during the launch of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2025 at the ongoing World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.
The latest figures represent a 0.5 percentage point increase, reflecting renewed investor confidence and growing optimism around Nigeria’s reform-driven recovery efforts.
According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economic momentum will continue into 2026, supported by improved oil production, stronger fiscal management, and sustained investor confidence.
The Fund’s upgraded projection positions Nigeria ahead of South Africa but slightly below the Sub-Saharan African regional average.
South Africa’s growth forecast was adjusted marginally upward from 1.0 to 1.1 percent for 2025 but revised downward from 1.3 to 1.2 percent for 2026. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth outlook improved modestly from 4.0 to 4.1 percent in 2025 and from 4.3 to 4.4 percent in 2026.
In its report, the IMF attributed Nigeria’s improved forecast to “supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, and a more favorable fiscal stance projected for 2026.”
The country’s limited exposure to rising U.S. tariffs was also cited as a positive factor.
“Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, many other economies see significant downward revisions due to the changing international trade and official aid landscape,” the Fund noted.
On the global stage, the IMF projected that world output will moderate to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, slightly better than the July 2025 update but still 0.2 percentage points below forecasts made before recent global policy shifts.
“This is an improvement relative to the July WEO Update, but cumulatively 0.2 percentage point below forecasts made before the policy shifts in the October 2024 WEO, with the slowdown reflecting headwinds from uncertainty and protectionism,” the IMF said.
The report added that advanced economies are expected to grow by around 1.5 percent over 2025–2026, with the United States slowing to 2.0 percent, while emerging markets and developing economies are projected to expand just above 4.0 percent.
Global inflation is forecast to ease to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.7 percent in 2026, while world trade volume is expected to grow by an average of 2.9 percent, slower than the 3.5 percent recorded in 2024, as trade fragmentation continues to weigh on global commerce.
Sam Diala is a Bloomberg Certified Financial Journalist with over a decade of experience in reporting Business and Economy. He is Business Editor at THEWILL Newspaper, and believes that work, not wishes, creates wealth.
