November 24, (THEWILL) — Markets are bracing for a further interest-rate cut as Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convenes for its final meeting of 2025.
Inflation appears to be cooling and foreign-exchange liquidity is improving, leading many analysts to expect the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to lower its benchmark rate again.
Analysts polled by markets are predicting a cut, though their forecasts vary. Some project a rate reduction of more than 100 basis points, citing steady disinflation and stabilized currency conditions.
Razia Khan, Managing Director and Chief Economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered, backs a 50bps cut to bring the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) down to 26%.
She argues that inflation, while still elevated, is now easing in a way that justifies modest policy loosening.
Tilewa Adebajo, CEO of CFG Advisory, offers a more aggressive view. He expects a 150–200bps cut, tying his forecast to the recently rebased CPI data.
Adebajo contends that although the statistical drop in inflation isn’t necessarily felt on the ground, the lower headline number gives the MPC room to act decisively.
Funmi Adebowale, Head of Research at Parthian Securities, is more cautious. While she acknowledges that inflation has moderated and FX stability is strengthening, she warns that inflation remains “far above” the CBN’s 6–9% target range limiting how aggressive policy can be.
Meanwhile, United Capital Research expects a 0.5 to 1.0 percentage point cut and sees a possible reduction in the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for banks from its current level. A move that would boost liquidity and credit growth.
On the broader risks front, some experts caution that a steep cut could undermine monetary credibility.
A large reduction may unsettle investors who have been closely tracking Nigeria’s macro policy credibility and FX dynamics.
Beyond the rate decision, markets will be watching for guidance on liquidity management and how the CBN intends to coordinate with ongoing fiscal reforms.
With the federal government pursuing tighter spending and revenue reforms, the MPC’s decisions could significantly shape market sentiment going into 2026.
Ogochukwu Onwaeze
