December 30, (THEWILL) — The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected a more stable and resilient economy in 2026, citing the impact of reforms implemented since 2023 and enhanced macroeconomic coordination.
This projection was outlined in the Bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, themed “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability amid Global Uncertainty,” released on Tuesday, December 30, 2025.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy is expected to stabilise further in 2026, with modest growth, continued moderation in inflation, and sustained foreign exchange stability.
The CBN noted that after a prolonged period of monetary tightening, it eased its policy stance in September 2025 to support domestic growth and investment, citing “continuing disinflation, sustained exchange rate stability, and improved liquidity conditions” as primary drivers.
External buffers strengthened throughout 2025, supported by higher remittance inflows, steady oil receipts, and growing non-oil exports.
The Bank also reported “substantial progress” in its transition to a full-fledged inflation-targeting framework.
Furthermore, progress in the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise was noted, with several banks already meeting new capital thresholds.
As a result of coordinated macroeconomic policy measures and the impact of reforms, the Outlook projects a more stable and resilient Nigerian economy in 2026.
Economic growth is projected at 4.49% in 2026, up from an estimated 3.89% in 2025, while headline inflation is expected to moderate significantly to 12.94%, aided by lower food and petrol prices.
Additionally, external reserves are projected to rise to $51.04 billion, providing a stronger cushion for the Naira, with the fiscal deficit estimated at ₦12.14 trillion, or approximately 3.01% of GDP.
Deputy Governor, Economic Policy, Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, reaffirmed the Bank’s commitment to price stability while promoting sustainable development.
He emphasised the need for harmonised fiscal and monetary policies and the use of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to drive inclusive growth and job creation.
Despite the optimistic forecast, the CBN cautioned that risks remain.
These include potential inflation resurgence if fiscal spending rises sharply, exchange rate volatility, adverse weather affecting agriculture, and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt crude oil production.
To mitigate these, the Bank plans to balance price stability with output growth while deploying tools to attract further foreign investment.
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