March 02, (THEWILL) — Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a year-on-year growth of 4.07 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, which is being hailed as the highest quarterly growth rate since Q4 2024. However, this figure conceals significant economic difficulties, including an impending food crisis and a worsening state of poverty.
According to the most recent data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP growth for Q4 2025 exceeded the 3.76 percent increase noted in Q4 2024 and the 3.98 percent observed in Q3 2025, indicating a sustained momentum within the year.
This growth was bolstered by widespread activity across essential economic sectors. The services sector, which continues to be the largest contributor to overall output, grew by 4.15 percent, while agriculture experienced a growth of 4.00 percent and the industrial sector increased by 3.88 percent during the quarter in question.
In nominal terms, the total GDP at basic prices increased by 17.55 percent year-on-year, reaching N122.81 trillion, up from N104.47 trillion in Q4 2024. The real GDP for this quarter was approximately valued at N63.97 trillion, compared to N57.03 trillion a year prior.
Sectoral contributions revealed that the non-oil economy constituted over 97 percent of real GDP, demonstrating resilience in agriculture, trade, telecommunications, finance, construction, and manufacturing. On an annual basis, Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.87 percent in 2025, surpassing the 3.38 percent growth recorded in 2024, propelled by ongoing activity in non-oil sectors and a slight recovery in crude oil production.
Data of controversy
The GDP growth of 4.07 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 did not correspond to an enhanced employment situation, as the revised unemployment methodology currently utilized by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is deemed controversial and unrealistic. According to the new method, an individual is considered employed as long as they are involved in any form of economic activity, regardless of its nature or impact. The current unemployment rate reported by the NBS stands at 5 percent.
This is evident in the agricultural sector, which is facing significant challenges due to the ongoing insecurity throughout the nation, particularly in regions that are key to food production. Many farmers have left their farms to seek refuge in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps.
Startling realities
As reported by the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction, Dr. Benard Doro, approximately 3.7 million Nigerians are presently living as internally displaced persons (IDPs) across the country. Dr. Doro made this statement while responding to inquiries on ‘The Morning Show’ program aired by Arise News Television. The IDPs are expected to be among the most severely affected by the looming food crisis anticipated by the United Nations.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations says about 34.7 million persons in Nigeria, including over 650,000 internally displaced persons across 27 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), are projected to face worse levels of food insecurity between June and August 2026.
The projections were contained in Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis presented in Abuja in November 2025, during the national consolidation and validation workshop and results presentation organised by FAO.
The analysis, covering 27 states and the FCT, reveals a worsening food and nutrition insecurity situation, driven by persistent inflation, insecurity, high agricultural input costs and climate shocks.
The FAO findings revealed that between October and December 2025, about 27.2 million Nigerians, including 485,109 displaced, experienced food insecurities categorised as Crisis (CH Phase 3) or worse by their nature.
The projected figures showed that the number of people facing hunger could rise sharply by mid-2026 if urgent interventions are not scaled up.
“Multiple shocks, armed conflict, organised crime, economic pressures and climate extremes are undermining livelihoods and food systems across the country. In this context, the CH analysis remains our most relevant early warning tool, guiding humanitarian programming and development planning,” said Mr Hussein Gadain, the FAO representative in Nigeria.
Deepening poverty
Also, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in its ‘Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026’ report stated that about 141 million Nigerians have been projected to fall into abject poverty in 2026, as the country’s poverty rate is projected to rise exponentially to 62 per cent this year.
According to the report, the poverty rate, which stood at 59 percent in 2024, rose to 61 percent, 139 million people, in 2025 and is expected to climb to 62 percent, 141 million, in 2026.
This surge, according to the report is attributed to persistent food insecurity, high energy costs, and a “consumer dilemma” where spending recovery is stifled by dwindling real income.
The firm estimates that most Nigerians would struggle to record income gains strong enough to offset rising prices in the near term, particularly as inflation continues to erode purchasing power.
“Poverty is projected to rise to 62 per cent (141 million people) by 2026, reflecting weak real income growth and lingering inflation effects,” the PwC report noted.
While inflation is expected to ease gradually, the fir m warned that the underlying cost structure of the economy would limit meaningful affordability gains for households.
Unaligned GDP expansion
Analysts emphasise that Nigeria’s expanding GDP figures do not reflect the economic realities across the country. While the latest GDP statistics reflects Nigeria’s strengthening recovery path, analysts warn that converting overall growth into enhanced living standards will necessitate more profound structural reforms, including better infrastructure, improved access to credit, and increased engagement from the private sector.
Sam Diala is a Bloomberg Certified Financial Journalist with over a decade of experience in reporting Business and Economy. He is Business Editor at THEWILL Newspaper, and believes that work, not wishes, creates wealth.
