October 13, (THEWILL) — One and half years after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) mandated deposit money banks (March 28, 2024) to raise their capital base, a comparative review of market performance between October 2024 and October 2025 reveals sharp divergences across Nigeria’s top lenders.
The market’s verdict is clear: capital action, investor perception, and foreign portfolio inflows (FPI) now determine who leads the next phase of banking dominance on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
As of October 10, 2025, the collective market capitalisation of Nigeria’s ten biggest listed banks surged by nearly 60% year-on-year from roughly ₦7.08 trillion in 2024 to about ₦11.18 trillion in 2025. However, individual trajectories varied sharply, reflecting how quickly and efficiently each institution moved to strengthen its balance sheet.
Top-Tier Re-Rating: The Fast Movers:
Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) Plc nearly doubled its valuation within a year, climbing from about ₦1.41 trillion in October 2024 to ₦2.79 trillion in October 2025, a gain of roughly 98 percent. The bank benefited from strategic capital raises and strong FPI flows, which bolstered investor confidence in its balance sheet. Timely communication on its recapitalisation plan helped attract both domestic and offshore institutional investors, driving up its share price.
Zenith Bank Plc also witnessed an impressive rally, rising from ₦1.17 trillion to ₦2.15 trillion, up 82 percent. The growth stemmed from a well-structured capital raise and active engagement with FPIs, which complemented the bank’s robust earnings. Zenith’s transparent process and early market announcement of its capital programme reassured investors, contributing to a surge in both domestic and foreign interest.
Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc maintained investor confidence with a 91 percent jump — from ₦738.5 billion to ₦1.41 trillion — underpinned by consistent earnings, stable governance, and selective FPI inflows. While the bank did not conduct large-scale private placements, its transparent capital adequacy reporting kept investor sentiment positive.
United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc and Access Holdings Plc both posted notable appreciation. UBA advanced from ₦908 billion to ₦1.44 trillion (+59%), driven by a strategically executed private placement that attracted foreign and domestic institutional investors. Access Holdings grew from ₦691 billion to ₦924 billion (+34%), benefiting from a combination of a rights issue and moderate FPI interest, which helped reinforce investor confidence and liquidity.
New Entrants to Billion Club:
Fidelity Bank grew from ₦460.9 billion to ₦649.8 billion (+41%), propelled by a ₦127.1 billion private placement that drew a new class of institutional investors. FPIs were attracted to the bank’s mid-cap growth potential and improving digital offerings, providing a valuation boost beyond the direct capital injection.
Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) advanced from ₦440.3 billion to ₦651.4 billion (+47.9%), largely due to its regional presence and active engagement with foreign investors seeking exposure to cross-border banking opportunities. While ETI’s recapitalisation was moderate, the combination of FPI interest and visible earnings stability helped lift its market value.
Wema Bank recorded one of the most dramatic upward movements, with the market cap soaring from ₦167 billion in 2024 to ₦427.5 billion (+155%). The bank executed a rights issue and targeted private placement, which not only strengthened its capital base but also drew attention from tech-focused FPIs, attracted by its ALAT digital banking platform and youth-oriented growth strategy.
First HoldCo Plc and FCMB Group were among the modest risers, with First HoldCo climbing by 21% from ₦917 billion to ₦1.11 trillion, and FCMB increasing by 28% to ₦215.8 billion. Both benefited from stable earnings and selective private placement activity; however, limited FPI involvement and delayed communication on recapitalisation reduced the pace of re-rating compared to peers.
Capital Action as the Defining Catalyst:
The divergence in performance underscores one truth: timing and transparency of capital raising have become key valuation drivers. Banks that promptly announced, structured, and completed their capital programmes — such as Zenith, UBA, Fidelity, and Wema — earned investor confidence early, translating into significant price appreciation.
Conversely, institutions that delayed their capital raises or faced market skepticism over dilution effects, like FCMB and First HoldCo, saw milder re-rating despite steady profits. The recapitalisation directive effectively rewarded speed, clarity, and communication in capital execution.
Foreign Portfolio, Investor Sentiment:
FPIs played a decisive role in shaping the market. Banks with strong governance, transparent recapitalisation plans, and cross-border operations attracted renewed attention from offshore funds.
Zenith, GTCO, and Stanbic IBTC were major beneficiaries, with FPI inflows accelerating valuation gains.
UBA and Fidelity leveraged private placements to attract both domestic and foreign institutional funds.
Wema Bank drew niche FPI interest due to its digital banking innovations.
Conversely, banks with limited capital action or perceived dilution risk, including FCMB and First HoldCo, experienced weaker foreign engagement, which tempered their market gains.
As the recapitalisation deadline approaches (March 31, 2026), the NGX banking index mirrors a market in transition — competitive, reform-driven, and capital-sensitive. Sharp rallies in some banks may stabilise, but year-on-year performance underscores investor belief in the sector’s fundamentals.
For now, banks that acted early on recapitalisation, embraced investor transparency, and attracted foreign interest are best positioned to lead Nigeria’s next growth cycle. Those still hesitating may face a less forgiving market in 2026, with valuation gaps likely to widen between proactive and passive players.
Ogochukwu Onwaeze
