August 20, (THEWILL) — In the last few months, both mainstream and social media have published news or commentaries about Tinubu’s second-term election in 2027, which, to many Nigerians, amounts to putting the cart before the horse. This is because it is too early and undermines the credibility of the government as an administration interested in clinging on to power rather than serving to fulfil the mandate for which it was elected.
The Tinubu administration, despite being a product of divisive politics in the 2023 presidential elections, coasted home to victory on a platter of gold. Thanks to the good track record, the Asiwaju of Lagos is associated with the governor of one of the most viable states in Nigeria. Secondly, Tinubu was seen as a” lesser evil” from the duo of perennial presidential aspirants, Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party`s Peter Obi, synonymous with “religious and ethnic campaigns”. Thirdly, he had a solid political structure for over two decades that he could latch on to and find his way to Aso Rock despite the resistance of a cabal within the then Buhari`s government. The rest is history. Let us go back to the central theme of this piece.
About three months ago, news started filtering in that President Tinubu was considering dropping his eloquent and loyal vice president, Kashim Shettima, as part of his second-term bid. The vice president is a product of providence. His grass-to-grace story illustrates the power of Allah, as the remote controller of destiny. The news stated further that the president was considering another candidate from the North West geo-political zone, which is today the hotbed of “anti-Tinubu sentiment”. Although the government has categorically come out to deny this story. The body language of the administration and even Tinubu suggests that there is more to this story than Nigerians have been told. The reason is simple: if there is no hole, what brought about the topic of hole, or what the Hausa man says, “In ba rami, mai ya kawo maganan rami”. The truth is that either Tinubu, in his game plan for the second term, is considering this option as a maverick politician who knows how to use power and money in a political setting like Nigeria, or he has started listening to some of his close associates who have thrown this card on the table.
For Tinubu to listen to this kind of dangerous rhetoric or even think about it amounts to divorcing a wife who is humble, takes care of the home, is a good ambassador in the absence of her husband to all and sundry and goes to any length to defend the image of her husband. This is because, naturally, there are politicians who never liked the emergence of Shettima, a non-career politician with no links to the Northern Nigeria political establishment.
Furthermore, some opportunistic politicians never thought that Tinubu would come this far with Shettima. This is because exactly on May 23, 2023, some politicians who lost out in the politics of the selection of the vice presidential candidate started a demarketing project to destroy the “trust” between Shettima and Asiwaju. All their efforts to see a “rofo rofo” fight between the president and his vice amounted to going to the village market a day after the market day-null and void. Nigerians have not forgotten the Obasanjo/Atiku era, when they both washed their dirty linen in public
To some Nigerians like myself, the president allowing this kind of rhetoric around him amounts to heating up the polity unnecessarily. This is because it is shifting the attention of the electorate or masses from the Renewed Hope agenda of this administration. It is also fretting the little goodwill the president enjoys in the country, thanks to his good track record. This is because many are beginning to question whether Tinubu is interested in serving out his first term and giving Nigerians dividends of democracy, or talking about a second term when no one is sure of making it past next week.
In addition, the major cause of the anti-Tinubu sentiment in the North West is not the person of Kashim Shettima, who is from the North East geopolitical zone and did well as a governor in Borno for eight years. If the president is to choose another candidate from any of the Northern states or heaven, the problem will still persist. There are four major reasons a section of Northerners is not happy with Tinubu. One, his subsidy removal without any provision for cushioning effects has made the region poorer and made the average man merely survive. Two, government subsidy on petroleum was the only thing most Nigerians were enjoying, now being taken away. This has compounded the woes of the average man in Northern Nigeria, who has nothing to show for his region’s stay in power for several decades. Three: the security challenge in the North West and North Central, not thanks to banditry, which this government inherited, is growing like stage three cancer. This has made it impossible for these people to access their farms or at least sleep well at night and engage in productive ventures in the morning. Four, the Tinubu administration is repeating the Buhari mistake of pumping billions monthly to state governors as monthly subvention without any commensurate impact on the people. Hence, the government is seen as a continuity of the Buhari government, which enriches governors, leaving the people to themselves and the mercy of their creator.
One of the advantages of maintaining the Tinubu/Shettima ticket is his humility and loyalty, which is never trying to outshine his boss, the president. Shettima, like any of us, is not perfect, but has always taken the bullet for Tinubu right from the 2023 campaigns. Choosing another vice presidential candidate now or in the future for Tinubu will split the votes of the North East geopolitical zone, who see Shettima as their son. The zone has always been looked down upon in Northern Nigerian politics because someone from the North West sees himself as being more northern. This is because the North East has several ethnic minorities. Some of whom were not known in Nigerian politics until Obasanjo chose Atiku Abubakar from Adamawa in 1999.
Secondly, substituting Shettima will amount to Tinubu losing his North-Eastern geopolitical zone votes and possibly give the new political platform, African Democratic Congress (ADC), a chance to make inroads in the North East. This may return Borno and Yobe states to opposition politics, which was broken by the Buhari presidency twelve years ago.
The Vice President is not a saint, but retaining him will enable the Tinubu presidency to redirect its priorities, correct its mistakes and use his enormous goodwill as a non-career politician to win the hearts and minds of Nigerians. Shettima`s humility and intellect remain an asset to this government. Going back to history, despite the irreconcilable differences he had with Senator Ali Modu Sheriff (SAS), he never attacked him either in public or private and remains eternally grateful to him for picking him from the banking hall to the murky waters of Nigeria`s politics. This is because you cannot sell a hen to buy a python that will end up eating its owner. A word they say is enough for the wise.
***Written by Abdullahi Naraguta.
