July 06, (THEWILL) — The candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, in the 2023 presidential election, Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso’s political fortune is far from declining as current political calculations have singled out the North-West geo-political zone as the most critical bloc towards winning the forthcoming 2027 General Election.
In their permutations, President Bola Tinubu’s men and the coalition of politicians have placed the North-West ahead of other geo-political zones in the country because of its voting strength, according to THEWILL checks. And the politician who both groups consider as holding the key to unlocking the zone’s magic formula for 2027 is Kwankwaso, the former governor of Kano and erstwhile Minister of the federal republic.
According to reliable inter-party sources, both the coalition and Tinubu’s men are now wooing the politician. Initially, the latter were taking everything in their stride. But they decided to intensify their efforts to woo Kwankwaso when it dawned on them that some key coalition politicians were also making overtures to the Kano kingmaker known for enjoying a cult-following in the state with the Kwankwasiyya Movement.
This was the main reason President Tinubu sacked the National Chairman of the APC, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje last week. The latter was said to be standing in the way of a smooth discussion with his archrival in Kano, Kwankwaso.
THE PETER OBI ANGLE
According to sources within the opposition coalition, which last Wednesday adopted the Africa Democratic Congress, ADC, as the party of choice in their bid to stop Tinubu’s re-election, there are ongoing moves to pave the way for Peter Obi’s emergence as presidential candidate of the coalition, barring any unforeseen circumstances. The move is in line with the unwritten power sharing understanding among the politicians to allow power to rotate between the North and South of the country.
This ongoing political plan is said to be behind Obi’s announcement of his intention to stay in office for one only term. In the event this plan to make him the party’s candidate succeeds, Obi, who also enjoys a cult following in the South, would need a strong candidate in the mould of Kwankwaso to make a formidable team in 2027, sources say.
Besides, there are strong indications that the candidate of the PDP in the 2023 presidential election, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar may not contest in 2027, making Obi’s smooth road to the ADC presidential ticket smoother. A party source however said, “Peter Obi is free to sell his candidacy. That is politics. But if you do not build a formidable platform, there is nothing to back your candidacy. What I can say is that the party will run an open and competitive primary after it has put its house in order, which is a major task ahead.”
THEWILL gathered that former President Olusegun Obasanjo “who is well respected across the country for his patriotism,” is involved in selling the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket to the coalition as the best option for the ADC to make the ‘desired impact’, in the 2027 election.
ADC AS A THREAT?
The unveiling of African Democratic Congress, ADC, by the coalition politicians has caused quite a storm in all the major political parties, contrary to the dismissive reactions from them, THEWILL has learnt. Part of the reason for this is the organic crowd that attended the display of the adopted party; politically exposed persons who attended freely, without mobilisation and payment for transportation.
Some of the attendees were, Atiku Abubakar, Obi, former Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai, former President of the Senate, David Mark, former Minister of Internal Affairs and ex-governor of Osun State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, former Minister of Transportation and ex-governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Ameachi, former National Chairman of the APC, Chief John Odigie–Oyegun, ex-National Chairman of the PDP, Uche Secondus; Chief Tom Ikimi, Senator Aminu Tambuwal, Senator Ireti Kingibe, Senator Eyinnanya Abaribe and Senator Elisha Abbo.
Others are former governors of Jigawa, Sule Lamido; Cross River, Liyel Imoke; Benue, Senator Gabriel Suswan; Imo, Emeka Ihedioha; Niger, Babangida Aliyu; and Ebonyi state, Sam Egwu. Kebbi and Sokoto State PDP Chairmen, Dr. Ibrahim Mera and Aliyu Goronyo respectively, Dr Ibrahim Mera as well as the party’s National Organising Secretary, Umar Bature were also there. The immediate past Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, resigned from the APC last week and joined the ADC.
The list also included former Military Administrator of Kwara State Akwa Ibom State, retired Brig-General Tunde Ogbeha and Senator Victor Umeh of LP, Lauretta Onochie, former Board Chairman of the Niger Delta Development Commission, NNDC, Dino Melaye, Dele Momodu, publisher of Ovation magazine, Akeem Baba-Ahmed, former Minister of Sport, Solomon Dalung and former Minister of Youths Development Bolaji Abdullahi.
Checks further shows that one of the reasons Mark and former Minister of Interior and Ogbeni Aregbesola agreed to take up the respective positions of Interim National Chairman and National Secretary is to ensure the party was not hijacked by moneybags or ‘godfathers’. Sources say the duo want to avoid the mistakes and afflictions plaguing current political parties, which are battling with a crisis of leadership and control by the overly rich.
Within permissible time before the administrative and political demands impact on the party, the interim exco wants to restructure the party and embark on a fund raise, drive the process of membership registration, determine the dues for members ahead of its convention and rework the party’s constitution and manifesto.
AS the Interim leadership has indicated, however, the adopted ADC is still a work in progress. The fact that some of the big wigs in the coalition are yet to resign from their political parties means some of them still have their aces up their sleeves, which may make or mar the party in the days ahead.
Atiku Abubakar is still in the PDP. Obi is still in LP, though the Julius Abure faction gave him 48 hours to resign while it washed its hands off the coalition. But the Senator Nenadi Usman-led LP exco gave Obi the nod. Another prominent coalition leader, Nasir el-Rufai, is still with the Social Democratic Party, SDP, to which he defected from the APC in March this year.
Explaining the reason for this development, the spokesperson of ADC, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi said, “There are elections taking place before 2027 that these parties are engaged in, that people like Mallam Nasir El Rufai have his group engaged in. So, they have bought forms on the platform of those parties. So, it is only sensible that you allow them to contest the elections on the platforms of those parties. And when they are done with that, as was indicated yesterday, everybody in principle is in ADC.”
CRITICAL NORTHWEST ZONE
The North-West geopolitical zone gave President Tinubu the highest number of votes in the 2023 general election.
Tinubu got 30 per cent of the total number of 8,794,726 votes he scored in the 2023 election from the North-West. This is almost one-third of the total votes he scored in the entire poll. In comparison, the South-West, where he hails from, gave him 2,542,979.
Apart from its exceptional advantage of having seven states among the six geo-political zones in the country, the zone also has three of the highest voting states in the country. They are namely Kaduna, Katsina and Kano. The other four states in the zone are Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara. During the 2023 election for example, the North-West had a total of 6,468, 492 votes, compared to the North-East with 3,116, 472: S/South: 2,745,707. N/Central with 4,261,784; S/West with 4,350,987; Southeast with 2,187,599.
Of the figures from these seven states in the North-East, Kano alone controls almost two million votes alone with Kwankwaso raking in 997,297 votes and President Tinubu, 517,349 votes in the 2023 presidential election. Kwankwaso’s membership of the APC would therefore be a massive addition both in numbers and personality, given his cult-following.
Besides the threat posed by the coalition politicians to the President’s current standing in the zone, the waning influence of former President Muhammadu Buhari in the zone, owing to his indifferent posture, has created a big gap that Kwankwaso would fill with his cult followership.
KWANKWASO’S NNPP
The prospects of the NNPP as a solid platform for electoral contest is crumbling by the day as it has broken into factions after its founder Dr. Boniface Aniebonam clashed with Kwankwaso over change of the party’s logo and constitution, leading to a split. The party’s National Chairman, Dr Agbo Major last week reaffirmed his earlier submission that the former Kano governor remained expelled from the party, just as one of its senators from Kano, Abdulrahman Kawu, recently defected from the party alongside some other party representatives from Kano State.
According to Major, Kwankwaso cannot continue to insist that he is still a member of the party, even after his expulsion for alleged anti-party activities.
Speaking on the likely exit of the party’s former presidential candidate from the NNPP, Major said Kwankwaso’ s exit would be “good riddance” for the party, adding that he did not only try to hijack the NNPP, but also made the party go through avoidable litigations. The NNPP logo that he changed to the Kwankwasiya Movement logo has just been changed to our logo by INEC, after years of controversy and litigation.”
However, Buba Galadima, an ally of Kwankwaso on Friday said the party was still alive. On the current overtures by the APC and coalition politicians to Kwankwaso, Galadima confirmed that the “APC, the PDP and a political coalition have all made overtures to Kwankwaso in recent months,” but maintained that the NNPP factional leader is not succumbing to pressures.
“Every Nigerian needs him. Every political party needs him. Why not support him to become the president of Nigeria so that he can deliver the dividends of democracy?” Galadima asked rhetorically.
Amos Esele is the Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
