July 27, (THEWILL) — When Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party, LP, in the 2023 presidential election, submitted his single-tenure proposal to the opposition coalition politicians for consideration, the African Democratic Congress, ADC, was a mirage. Fortunately, not anymore. The party is waxing stronger by the day since its adoption by the same coalition politicians as the platform for the realisation of their political ambition to defeat President Bola Tinubu for the presidency in 2027.
One of the coalition leaders, Atiku Abubakar, has resigned from the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, on whose platform he contested the 2023 presidential election. He is yet to officially join the ADC.
But a reliable source close to the politician told THEWILL that the ADC is where the former Vice President is headed. “He said he is running for the presidency in 2027. ADC is the platform the leaders of the opposition coalition have adopted,” the source told this newspaper on Friday night.
A serving Senator, Ireti Kingibe, representing the Federal Capital Territory in the National Assembly on the platform of the Labour Party has defected to the ADC alongside some others from other political parties.
As these events unfold quickly, Obi is fighting hard to remain in the scheme of things within the ADC.
The single-term tenure he promised the coalition over a fortnight ago as a bargaining chip is being overwhelmed by reactions from opposing forces.
THEWILL gathered that since he resigned from the PDP, Atiku’s influence has risen within the North and the champions of the North versus South politics see him as the one who the cap fits in the North for the contest ahead. In addition to this emerging scenario, the leaders of the coalition insist that whoever gets the ADC presidential ticket must emerge through the party’s primaries.
What is more, Atiku’s supporters across the country are said to have pulled out of the PDP and started building ADC structures in their respective constituencies.
While it is still a matter of conjecture now whether Atiku will beat Obi in the party’s presidential primary, tension is said to be building up among some big wigs of the party who calculate that on the strength of the pervading perception and identity politics in the North an Obi candidacy will be easier to sell in the South than in the core North, particularly in the North-West and North-East geo-political zones, thereby enabling the “fearful possibility of handing victory to the President on a silver platter,” according to a source.
In fact, Kenneth Okonkwo, a chieftain of the ADC has been making this point recently that only a candidate of northern extraction can defeat President Tinubu in 2027. He explained that his analysis of the situation was based on expediency, noting that, ““The ADC is not zoning to the North. That’s my strategy because it’s the only way to unseat (President) Tinubu. The party has committed to free and fair primaries where everyone can contest.”
MOUNTING PRESSURE FROM ‘OBIDIENT MOVEMENT’
Following the ongoing plots within the ADC, alongside the ongoing factional conflict in the Labour Party, the leadership of the Obidient Movement is said to have sought and obtained Obi’s permission to move into the ADC and take up positions before Atiku’s group seizes the party structure.
A leader of one of the Movement’s founding groups confided in THEWILL that the general consensus among them is that Obi will pull out of the coalition if ADC fails to give him the presidential ticket. He disclosed that ‘PO,’ as Obi is popularly called by the group, has agreed to their request to move into ADC and take up leadership positions before it is too late.
The source told this newspaper, “This is the political reality facing us now. During a recent meeting with us, PO said those in LP are free to remain in the party and contest some upcoming election while those crossing over to ADC are free to do so. That is why Senator Ireti Kingibe moved into ADC. PO’s close confidant, Dr. Moses Paul, has also moved into the party and he will contest the local government chairmanship in the Abuja Municipal Area Council, AMAC, forthcoming poll on the party’s platform. PO has also given clearance to the 2023 governorship candidate of the LP in Lagos State, Gbadebo Patrick Rhodes-Vivour and his group to cross over to the ADC. The strategy of the OM is to move into ADC just as Atiku’s supporters are doing and take up positions before PO comes in. Otherwise, he will not have the structure to negotiate and realise his ambition. As of now, we are building structures in over 23 states at the ward and unit levels.”
He argued that 2027 politics will present a different scenario from that of 2023. According to him, the fear of religious persecution exhibited by voters during the 2023 polls because of APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket will be a hard sell in 2027.
He points out that the Bola Tinubu Administration has appointed many Christians into key positions to drain that fear of any electoral value. For example, people like the Minister of Works, Dave Umahi; Minister of Aviation, Festus Keyamo; Chief of Defence Staff, Lt. Gen Christopher Musa; Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Emmanuel Ogalla; Governor of Central Bank, Olayemi Emmanuel Cardoso and the recently appointed National Chairman of the governing APC, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, are all Christians.
Still, Obidient Movement is said to have sought and obtained PO’s clearance to move into the ADC as a bloc with a condition: Wherever Obi goes, the Movement follows. In other words, if the Labour Party leader fails to get the ADC ticket and chooses to leave, the Movement will pull out of the party and follow him.
But for the spokesperson of the Middle Belt Forum, MBF, Luka Binniyat, who insists that nothing significant has changed in two years to alter the voting preferences of a majority in the Middle Belt zone, given the uncertainty created by insecurity in the country, Obi’s involvement in the ADC was still to ignite excitement from the Forum. The Forum alongside Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo and Pan Niger Delta Forum, PANDEF, supported Obi’s candidacy in 2023.
“We are still observing the politics taking shape in the ADC and we in the Middle Belt are yet to be excited by what is going on there,” he told THEWILL. He said the Forum and the Southern Leaders Forum, comprising Afenifere, PANDEF and Ohanaeze, would address a press conference in Abuja at the end of July, 2025, to state its 2027 stand.
CONVENTION/PRIMARY SETBACK
The dilemma in all of these permutations is that ADC’s convention, like all other political parties, will come up in mid 2026, in line with the rules of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, which prescribes a period of 90 days for electioneering. The implication of this is that an Obi decision to pull out of the party in the likelihood of his failure to clinch its presidential ticket may backfire as it would be too late to find another viable platform for the completion of his aspiration.
LABOUR PARTY AS PLAN B
On Friday, images of Obi and former Governor of Niger State, Dr Aliyu Babangida, as well as former Governor Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna state hit the news wave, fueling speculations that the LP presidential candidate in the 2023 election is extending his ongoing negotiations with relevant stakeholders to explore the possibility of returning to the PDP in the hope that the major opposition party will zone its 2027 presidential ticket to the South.
Former Minister of Information and one of the founding fathers of the PDP, Professor Jerry Gana on Friday gave further credence to this speculation when he hinted that talks with Obi and other prominent political figures were ongoing.
“I have met people. I have met him (Obi). I have met the people he would refer to and I have sat with them for some hours. We are moving step by step,” he said on national television on Friday.
THEWILL however gathered that Obi’s meeting with el-Rufai and Babangida is part of his moves to seek support from a broad range of prominent politicians to mount pressure on Atiku to forgo his presidential ambition and support an Obi candidacy on the platform of the ADC.
It is in that same light that Obi is said to have supported the move by his running mate in 2023, Yusuf Datti Ahmed to meet last week with the Abure faction of the LP in a bid to broker peace between the warring factions of the party. Although the Abia State governor, Alex Otti-led faction, supported by the Nigeria Labour Congress, appointed Senator Esther Nenadi Usman as Interim National Chairman to plan the party’s elective national convention later in the year, there is a strong indication that both factions are open to reconciliation as INEC is yet to accord recognition to either of them.
Efforts to get reactions from the Spokespersons of the Abure-led faction, Mr Obiora Ifoh and Arabambi Abayomi failed. Ifoh said he was indisposed to speak. National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement, Tanko Yinusa, also failed to answer his phone and reply to messages.
A source however said that the reason Obi continues to say he is still a card-carrying member of the LP is “because LP is his plan B if his ADC plan fails.”
This is said to be the main reason, Obi is yet to resign from the LP and join ADC. But ADC holds a different view. Interim National Publicity Secretary of ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi said pressing party matters have restrained Obi alongside el-Rufai from resigning from their parties and joining ADC.
“They were given the opportunity to finalise pending elections, including by-elections and the selection of governorship candidates, within their legacy parties,” Abdullahi said, while reassuring the public that both Obi and El-Rufai were committed to the ADC coalition and they would formally join the party after completing those processes.
Abdullahi also addressed the issue of party democracy and alleged preference for any aspirant: “We have no hidden agenda or preferred candidate. Everyone will have a fair chance in the race for the party’s ticket.”
Even so, the OM source claims that with the strong support of the movement behind him, Obi can decide to move into any platform anytime. “That is the reason we decided to move very early into ADC before the positions are taken up. As a united front, OM can move into any party and impact its structure,” he said.
How this move translates into victory for Obi in 2027 amid the increasingly volatile politicking, web of intrigues and strategic alliances remains to be seen.
Amos Esele is the Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
