July 9 (THEWILL) — The Federal Government has projected that Nigeria’s gas demand will surpass supply by 2030.
It warned that the country could face a daily supply deficit of approximately 3 billion cubic feet (bcf) unless investments in gas production and infrastructure are accelerated.
This projection was revealed by the Coordinating Director of the Decade of Gas Initiative, Ed Ubong, during a panel session at the ongoing Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week 2026 in Abuja.
Ubong stated that the demand for natural gas is expected to rise significantly to around 15 bcf per day by 2030, while the projected supply is estimated at only 12 bcf per day.
This highlights the urgent need to unlock fresh investments across the gas value chain.
Instead of viewing this shortfall as a setback, Ubong emphasized it as a clear investment signal for operators to increase upstream gas development and to expand domestic processing and transportation infrastructure.
“The first question we must ask is whether there is credible demand for gas. The answer is yes. Demand is growing in both domestic and export markets, and we must ensure supply keeps pace,” Ubong said.
He disclosed that Nigeria’s proven gas reserves have increased to approximately 215 trillion cubic feet, and daily gas production reached about 7.87 bcf at the end of May, reflecting improved investments in the sector.
According to him, Nigeria’s gas outlook continues to improve due to rising production, expanding reserves, and ongoing efforts to reduce gas flaring.
“It is encouraging that reserves are increasing, production is rising, and gas flaring continues to decline. We must maintain this balance as we work toward our production target,” he said.
Ubong revealed that over 20 gas development projects currently in the pipeline are expected to deliver an additional 4.6 bcf per day, bringing Nigeria closer to meeting its long-term production target under the Decade of Gas initiative.
However, he cautioned that increased production alone will not suffice without corresponding investments in gas transmission infrastructure.
He called for the swift completion of key projects, particularly compressor stations and the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline, describing them as critical for moving gas from producing fields to industries, power plants, and households across the country.
Ubong also advocated for deeper regional energy integration through the proposed African Atlantic Gas Pipeline and the expansion of the West African Gas Pipeline corridor to strengthen energy security and unlock new export opportunities across the sub-region.
Regarding gas pricing, Ubong stated that Nigeria must gradually transition to a commercially driven market where prices are determined by willing buyers and willing sellers, while ensuring that domestic consumers remain protected against high costs.
He commended the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority for establishing a pricing framework for the sector but stressed that the government must balance investor returns with consumer protection.
“We need a pricing system that attracts investment, supports exports, and ensures that gas remains affordable for Nigerians,” he said.
Ubong identified Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), commonly known as cooking gas, as the product that directly impacts millions of Nigerian households, asserting that the government will continue to monitor domestic prices to shield consumers from volatility in the international energy market.
“Cooking gas is the product most directly felt by ordinary Nigerians. We must ensure it remains affordable and accessible,” he emphasised.
As part of efforts to expand access to clean cooking energy, he announced that the Federal Government plans to distribute five million LPG cylinders to women in rural communities by 2030—approximately one million cylinders annually—to accelerate the transition from firewood and other traditional cooking fuels.
He added that the government is also prioritizing the supply of gas for electricity generation to address Nigeria’s chronic power deficit, describing natural gas as the most practical transition fuel in the pursuit of cleaner energy sources.
Ubong maintained that achieving the objectives of the Decade of Gas Initiative will require stronger collaboration among governments, regulators, and private sector operators.
He stated that a communiqué outlining concrete measures to strengthen regional cooperation on gas production, infrastructure development, market integration, and energy security across West Africa will be issued at the close of the Nigeria Oil and Gas Energy Week.
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