January 19, (THEWILL) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 upward to 4.4 per cent, from its earlier projection of 4.2 per cent, signaling increased confidence in the country’s medium-term economic prospects.
The revised outlook was published in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook and unveiled on Monday, January 19, at the report’s official launch.
According to the Fund, the adjustment reflects growing optimism that Nigeria’s ongoing reforms, improved fiscal coordination, and strengthening macroeconomic stability are beginning to yield results.
The IMF noted that while its near-term outlook for the country remains largely unchanged, the upgrade is driven by expectations of stronger performance beyond the immediate horizon.
In its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s 2026 growth at 4.2 per cent, citing concerns around inflation, fiscal pressures, and structural constraints.
The latest revision suggests that the Fund now expects a stronger payoff from recent reform efforts.
The IMF’s report also placed Nigeria’s improved outlook within a broader regional recovery trend, as growth in Sub-Saharan Africa was revised upward to 4.6 per cent for 2026. South Africa’s outlook also improved slightly, with growth projections rising to 1.4 per cent for 2026.
Globally, the IMF projects economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027.
The Fund attributed this stability to a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from technology-driven investments, including artificial intelligence, alongside accommodative financial conditions.
Global inflation is expected to continue easing, with headline inflation projected to decline to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
The IMF stated that Nigeria’s upgraded outlook reflects broader but gradual economic strengthening across the region, reinforcing expectations of sustained recovery.
However, the report warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, including potential volatility in energy prices and global trade tensions.
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