For many years, resources from crude oil have muzzled the capacity by Nigeria to be creative on ways to manage funds, grow wealth and invent nifty ideas for nation building. It has rather infused in successive leaders and the led, the spirit of stealing, profligacy and waste. Today, there is a flip to the adverse, which pre-conditions Nigeria to a sudden economic recession that comes as recompense and a torment for the country that failed to be parsimonious and frugal in its days of abundance.
Although economic diversification is gearing up as a bail-out from the gripping recession bedevilling Nigeria, given the cheering report from the field of agriculture and other natural resources, yet, oil resources still counts as an immediate avenue for succour to propel the economy for implementation of budgets.
The 2016 budget proposal of 6.07 trillion Naira, is anchored on a crude oil benchmark price of $38 per barrel and a production estimate of 2.2 million barrels per day. Regrettably, production capacity had dropped drastically to 1.679. The glut in the international crude oil supply has also continued to peg the price of crude oil at less than $40 per barrel, accounting for the gross shortfall in the revenue generated by Nigeria from oil.
The activities of the Niger Delta militants have worsened the already bad scenario for Nigeria. It has limited the scope of government to generate sufficient funds to brace the budget implementation. There is no luck in sight for Nigeria yet amid the sustained hostilities in the oil producing communities of the country where armed militants are holding sway, vowing to cripple oil production in the zone to level zero. The immediate alternative for Nigeria is to call the aggrieved militants to a round table for dialogue to get the peace required for resumption of economic activities in the Niger Delta region.
The government has not been sitting on its oars. Weeks ago, it sat on a round table with elders from the Niger Delta who tabled a 16-point demand, which they felt could offer a way out if attended to. President Buhari had promised to study the demands and get back to the elders. But the militants who continued to claim responsibilities for destruction of major oil facilities in the oil rich states of south-south appear very implacable. Hours after the elders and the government jaw-jawed; a group of militants blew up an oil facility in Delta State. They took further steps to destroy already repaired oil export facilities in different states. These have induced a heavy haemorrhaging of the nation’s economy. It is scary that the revenue base of the nation may soon be at stand still.
If dialogues with the militants are considered germane and necessary, what may have eclipsed the plans by the government for that is the confusion and bedlam in the camps of the restive youths. Militant groups are disproportionate in number, all operating independently. Not one would imagine yielding the ground to the other. Efforts to make them bond as a major pressure group to engage the government in talks had consistently proved abortive. Elders from the zone who position themselves as mediators only command a modicum of respect from the war mongering militants. By this, the dilemma of the government could only widen by the day.
All along, Nigeria has not been unmindful of the need to attend to the basic demands of the people of Niger Delta, bothering mainly on neglect and ill treatment of their zone by the government. In response, the government scrapped OMPADEC and replaced it with the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) to fast-track the development of the zone. NDDC had commissioned projects on Health, Education (offer of scholarship to students, etc), constructed roads, bridges and culverts. It has also offered employment opportunities to some youths, provided portable water, transportation and others. Oil companies operating in the zone too had joined in building required facilities meant to develop critical areas in the south south.
Again, Amnesty program also came along as a remedy for disengaging the youths of the Niger Delta from acts of brigandage and militancy. Some ex-militants got opportunities to train abroad on diverse vocations. Many who embraced the tool had taken up paid jobs and are now living responsibly. Constitutionally too, Nigeria conceded 13 percent of revenue from oil to states in the Niger Delta to carry out developmental projects. President Buhari in addition to extending the Amnesty programme to 2017 had launched the Cleanup of Ogoni land project to address the problem of environmental degradation of the area. From indications, Nigeria is ever eager to attend to any genuine demands the people of Niger Delta will humbly put up for consideration.
To cap it all, Nigeria, in 2011 and against all odds, supported the clamour by the south-south to produce the Nigerian President and hence ensured the ascension of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan from Bayelsa into power. Today, there is no denying that the hands of the clock ticked limitlessly in favour of the south-south while the Jonathan presidency lasted. Even at that, Nigerians bothered less on the alleged excesses of kinsmen who took the epic centre of governance during the Jonathan’s era.
What is most regrettable today is that the youths of the Niger Delta; the militants are putting wedges before every effort by the rest of Nigeria to reach a truce with them. Of late, militant groups are beating war drums, offering hints that their intransigence over the years are meant to preparing the south-south zone for cession! It is very unlikely whether the rest of Nigeria will stand arms akimbo to allow the breakaway of any of its component units without a common agreement reached to that effect.
Yet, wisdom demands that timely advice and suggestions must be offered earnestly to the militants from time to time. The seemingly implacable militants of the south-south should be mindful that in all situations, every hostility, no matter how deep and intense always end up on a round table for final solution. The militants should know that they may not be too adept in war strategies, no matter how well equipped to engage the rest of Nigeria in warfare.
Militants should remember too that though the destruction of the Nigerian economy is their main target and joy of brigandage, but the truth is that their own zone; the battle field; is to bear the pains and anguish, the consequences of their bombing of oil facilities for many years. They should know too that in the event of outbreak of war that they clamour for, innocent citizens; their fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters may be put in harm’s way.
Painful as it may sound, the world is frantically preparing to do away with fossil oil. Countries with eyes on the future have been investing heavily on solar energy and time tested batteries to power automobiles, aircrafts, trains, electronic equipment, machineries and others. It is a matter of time before petroleum loses its relevance as a measure to save the eco system. Already, plans by Nigeria to look beyond oil have started making millionaires from the agricultural sector. More millionaires are likely to emerge from the industrial sector, which agriculture is about to re-oil. It presupposes that the future of Nigeria is brighter as oil continues to fade into oblivion. The question is what will be the lot of the war mongering militants in the post oil era in Nigeria?
Written by Idowu Samuel.
