My only chance of visiting Osun State was during my Youth Service. A couple of us decided to explore the tourism potentials of my host state of Ondo, and other neighbouring states. We started out at the amazing Ikogosi Warm and Cold Water Springs in Ikogosi, Ekiti State, went to the fascinating Idanre Hills in Ondo town and ended up at the incredible 7 cascades of the Erin Ijesha Waterfalls in the State of Osun.
As I stood at the foot of the waterfall (the 7th layer if you are counting from the source and the 1st layer if you are counting from the destination) I stared in awe as the high pressure water splashed on me. The waterfall cascades into 7 unique layers. As you make your way up, each cascade offers breath-taking views of nature. It was simply awesome. As I struggled to climb, gripping the rugged walls of the rock, I refused to look down being obviously scared of the height. The high humidity and the splashing water offered a cooling succor and a uniquely fresh aura. This was nature at its best. While it was our desire to get to the 7th cascade, we aborted the climb midway as we thought it would be too risky to go that far. More so, I saw the skin of what looked like a 6-foot cobra, and boy I’m never shy of admitting my fears for snake. I was convinced the snake could be lurking around, sampling which of us will make a good meal. In less than 5 minutes, we hurried down to where we started – the 1st layer, enjoying the heavy splash on our way.
Like our previous destinations, Ikogosi warm spring and Idanre Hills, there was little or no visible presence of government around the Erin Ijesha waterfalls. The road was bad, and there were no basic amenities. Even though I had great fun at all three spots, I left with a vexed spirit. Imagine such immense potentials left untapped. That has been the story of the South-West; indeed the story of all of Nigeria. A nation of untapped resources and wasted potentials. That said, nothing can take away the fun I had at the Erin Ijesha waterfall. I relish every single moment I spent at that amazing piece of nature and if I have the chance, I would visit again.
On Saturday, the people of the State of Osun will be electing their governor. Either by happenstance or mere coincidence, I have seen the other two states I visited back then (Ondo and Ekiti), fall out of the hands of the once dominant ACN (Now APC). Will Osun State follow the trend or will they simply continue their maverick stance, being the only South-Western State that the PDP lost in the 2011 Presidential polls? Osun State is quite strategic, and both APC and PDP are aware of this fact as they slug it out in the polls. The momentum is on the side of PDP, haven made a mince-meat of the APC in Ekiti. The APC seemed to have been a victim of their eliticist policy and posturing. While they were busy enjoying power, there was a widening gap between the incumbent and the electorates. The result was what we saw in Ekiti. That the PDP is giving the APC a tough time in Osun, a state that was completely there’s years back, is a sign that all is not well with the Party. But, if there is anyone in APC that can stem the tide, it has to be the enigmatic Ogbeni Arigbesola. In his 4-year reign, he has completely hugged the headlines, never afraid of controversy as well. He holds the ace as an incumbent, and also blessed with a great knowledge of his people. His opponent, Senator Omisore on the other hand is not a push-over. How many Nigerians can win an election even while in detention? That sums him up.
As stated above, Osun State is of strategic interest to both parties. Their electorates are quite sophisticated, and there are a lot of factors that could swing the votes. I have attempted to chronicle 7 of them below, just like the 7 cascades of the Erin Ijesha waterfall,
(1) Street Credibility – This race has been that of two contestants competing for street credibility. Pictures of Senator Omisore quickly emerged with him holding roasted corn in both hands, in a pose suggestive of his people-centric demeanor. Later I saw a picture of what looks like the Senator taking a ride on a motor bike. Ogbeni Rauf is also not a “learner” in this regard. Is it the carefully taken pictures of him being hugged by a rural woman, apparently in appreciation, or the picture of the Ogbeni dressed in his elegant white attire and submerged in a crowd of not too elegantly dressed everyday fellows? There are still a few days to the election, you’ll probably see more stunts. The battle for street credibility is on.
(2) Strategy – Either by playing a saintly game or playing dirty, the tactics adopted by both candidates will decide who will win. Both candidates have the capacity to do both, and they have done just that thus far. The incumbent, Ogbeni Rauf has mastered his own ways. Like a dreaded wrestler, he knows how to sprint through the ring, twitch his chest muscles with an intimidating glory and instill fear into his opponent. He has his way with his crowd; he commands a cult followership. He knows how to write his own scripts, he knows when to modify them, he knows when to delete them. When stomach infrastructure became a factor, bags of rice with a smiling Ogbeni Rauf emerged. In fact, the man saw tomorrow – His free education scheme already made provision for free feeding for the pupils. Parents don’t forget such gestures in a hurry, and this might be his saving grace. He loves the spot light and had to be malleable to continue surfing on the waves of his popularity. Senator Omisore on the other hand has proved himself a dogged fighter. He has showed himself a man of grit, tact and stamina. Like the great boxer, Mohammed Ali, he has soaked up all the punches thrown at him while watching his opponent wear himself out as he waits for his chance to rain his own punches. A task he has done with aplomb. Like the butterfly, he may seem to stutter in his flight, but his buoyancy remains intact. Like a bee, his sting has proved dangerous and venomous. Senator Omisore has adopted the cluster approach in his electioneering campaign – maintain a strong grip on each cluster, with credible and trusted contacts for each. That way he gets a strong grip on his followers remotely through the contacts. Like him or not, he has worked hard and smartly, making the best use of the resources available to him. The two parties have been up and doing as well. PDP knows the game of maximizing momentum. They know that Nigerians swing to the side with the stronger momentum and the massive victory at Ekiti handed them that luxury – they will continue to hug it. APC on the other hand knows their continuous survival as a party will depend on the outcome of the Osun election. They know this truth, and are not taking anything for granted. They have relocated the party secretariat to Osogbo, and micromanaging every single task. The results seem evident as the crowd poured in at the mega rally earlier this week. Whether this was a genuine crowd or rented one is for another day, but the truth is, APC understands that Nigerians predict the outcome of results from the crowd they see on TV, whether rightly or wrongly. They’ve already scored one point in the eyes of TV viewers. For one who loves strategy, it’s been an interesting duel; we wait for who will out-fox the other.
(3) Stomach Infrastructure – When APC lost in all LGAs in Ekiti, the excuse branded was that the people voted in the direction of what has now been known as Stomach Infrastructure (even though I find this a bit insulting to the electorates). Whether Stomach infrastructure was a factor or not, both camps seem not to take any chances. In the past few weeks, I have seen the picture of both Ogbeni Rauf and Senator Omisore on practically every household item – rice bags, table water, etc. The only thing missing is their pictures on the bottled Ebola Serum (if any exists). These are good times for the electorates.
(4) Religious Lines – As much as we would like this not to be a deciding factor in politics, the feelers we get indicate that the people hold tight to religious sentiments and may vote along that line. Osun State has a large population of all three – Christian, Muslim and the traditional religion. Each group guards their interest jealously, and will not hesitate to vote against any candidate that threatens it. We got a taste of how passionate the people were about religion following the introduction of the Ifa Studies in schools and the other reforms made by the current administration; we all saw the fierce debates that ensued. I see a situation where those passionate views will be reflected in the voting pattern. Sadly, it is a trend I hate to write about, and pray should be of less prominence.
(5) The Omoluabi Factor – The coat of arm of the state of Osun has two elephants, symbolizing strength, service and humility, and a lion symbolizing nobility, dignity and courage. These qualities are essential traits of an Omoluabi. The people of Osun are proud custodians of their culture and they would vote the candidate they feel embodies the Omoluabi persona. If you want to be voted for, make sure you are seen as an Omoluabi.
(6) The Cicero Factor – Apart from the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola, the most loved Yoruba political figure in the last two decades is arguably the late Chief Bola Ige. Sadly, the life of this fine Nigerian was cut short by assassins 13 years ago. The recent elections have seen his name mentioned severally to whip sentiments. There are only very few persons in our history, whose names can command votes even in death; Bola Ige is one of those and the politicians know this. They have mentioned his name at every opportunity, eulogized him, held a minute silence in his honour at rallies, and I’m sure the voters will definitely vote in the direction that honours their hero. I just wish the politicians will do more than observing a minute silence, by actually living a worthy life like Chief Bola Ige led.
(7) INEC and The Security Agencies – No one can undermine the role of an umpire in a contest. INEC holds the key. In recent time, they have put up a commendable show. From the victory of the comrade Governor in Edo State to that of Fayose in Ekiti, the Jega-led INEC has continued to improve. We hope this improvement will continue so the votes of the good people of Osun State will count exactly as it was casted. The security agencies must also play their constitutional roles of ensuring Peace, security, law and other. This is crucial to the success of the Osun election.
My Prediction
I have based my analysis on plain perception – it could be right or wrong – but putting it all together, I see Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola taking the day by a slim margin. The margin of victory is smaller than my allowed error rate, meaning the table could turn swiftly. A lot can still happen before election day. That said, I can only analyze, not vote. The ball is in the court of the people of Osun State. I trust they will do what is good for them. I have nothing to lose if either of the two wins. However, I have a lot to gain if the better of the two wins. On a professional note, both Ogbeni Rauf and Senator Omisore are my senior colleagues; both being Engineers. I need no crystal ball, an Engineer will win the election. May the best Engineer win. Long Live the Great State of Osun.
Written by R. Tombari Sibe.
@rsibe
