BEVERLY HILLS, May 19, (THEWILL) – An argument that has intermittently cropped up with football this season that is on its last leg has been the essence of “home advantage” for the host team especially in the general absence of supporters.
The season witnessed the victory of some clubs at stadia they had never previously won while some COVID-19 restrictions forced some clubs, like Chelsea and Atletico Madrid, for instance, to play a “home” match abroad and without any supporters of any kind.
The question was: Is football truly the same without the fans in the stands, massively chanting support for their side, making the presence felt, reacting to play as it happens right there, piling pressure on the team and the match officials, celebrating wildly for a goal and being the 12th Man for the club they are there to support?
In order words, how much difference did the home advantage count with the presence of fans in the stands and did it have an impact on how football fixtures transpired in the course of the 2020/2021 campaign or was there nothing tangible to the “home and away” classification of matches since most of the top teams performed as usual?
As about 10,000 fans returned to football stadia in the English Premier League for the final two fixtures of the season, a data study conducted by Nielsen’s Gracenote, which analysed and compared the 288 games with fans before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019-20 and the 345 matches with no attendance in the current season has attempted to provide an answer to these queries.
From the data gathered, away sides scored more goals, won more games and been on the end of more favourable refereeing decisions without vociferous home supporters there to intimidate them or the match officials one way or the other.
They found out that in games with fans in the stands last season, home teams won 14.6% more matches than away sides. But, with that advantage lost this season as coronavirus protocols restricted fans from stadia, away teams have picked up 4.4% more wins than home sides, with their win percentage sky-rocketing from 30.2% of last year’s 288 games with crowds to 40.9% this time with empty stands.
But that is not all as the difference also reflects in the data gathered from the officiating side of these matches. There were changes in the match officials’ decision-making without fan pressure as well. This season, away sides won an average of 0.6 free-kicks per game more than home sides, while that number was reversed with fans present last season.
Overall, there was a small but noticeable decline in the number of yellow cards issued to both home and away teams. The per-game frequency dropped from 3.6 to just over three. This was also reflected in the reduction in the number of bookings the away sides picked which dropped to 1.5 from the previous record of 1.97, when crowds were present. Home teams picked up more bookings without fans.
Simon Gleave, who is Gracenote’s Head of Sports Analysis, noted: “In the 345 matches without crowds this season, away teams in the Premier League have actually won 15 more matches than their opponents playing in their home stadium.
“It is clear that home advantage in the premier league has declined significantly or perhaps even disappeared without crowds.”
Most often this is categorised under unconscious bias and filed away as part of the game of football. However, there are results that have gone the way of home sides not only because of performance on the field but the influence of fans on decision-making, which does not help the expected fair and competitive nature of the game.
It is hoped that the EPL can set an example for other leagues, based on the results of these findings, by seeking ways and means to make the end results less and less a case of unconscious bias and more a reflection of the quality of football on display on the day even as things return to normal and crowds pack up the stands across football stadia again.
Jude Obafemi is a versatile senior Correspondent at THEWILL Newspapers, excelling in sourcing, researching, and delivering sports news stories for both print and digital publications.
